{"id":101556,"date":"2025-10-17T13:23:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T11:23:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/?p=101556"},"modified":"2025-10-17T13:23:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T11:23:16","slug":"asri-report-fragile-gains-amid-fiscal-tightrope-south-africas-economy-at-a-crossroads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/asri-report-fragile-gains-amid-fiscal-tightrope-south-africas-economy-at-a-crossroads\/","title":{"rendered":"ASRI Report: Fragile Gains Amid Fiscal Tightrope \u2014 South Africa\u2019s Economy at a Crossroads"},"content":{"rendered":"

Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za<\/a>
\n3-minute read | 17 October | 13:18 CAT<\/p>\n

\"\"

\ud83d\udcf8 Economic analyst Rashad Amra unpacks South Africa\u2019s fragile recovery, warning that despite lower inflation and improved power supply, unemployment and fiscal strain still cloud the outlook.<\/p><\/div>\n

South Africa\u2019s economy is showing signs of fragile stability after years of turbulence, but analysts warn that growth remains too weak to tackle the country\u2019s deep-seated crises of unemployment, poverty, and inequality.<\/p>\n

Speaking in this week\u2019s ASRI Report<\/a>,<\/em> economic analyst Rashad Amra said that while conditions are \u201ccalmer compared to where we were two or three years ago,\u201d the economy is far from strong. Inflation has cooled, the rand is steadier, and electricity supply has stabilised with \u201cvery few days of load shedding\u201d in the past year, yet overall growth sits at a modest 1%.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen progress, but not nearly enough to absorb all of those unemployed individuals or make a dent in poverty,\u201d said Amra. \u201cIt\u2019s better than where we were, but not where we need to be.\u201d<\/p>\n

Amra dismissed attempts to credit the Government of National Unity (GNU) for these marginal gains, explaining that reforms at Eskom and other key sectors predated the GNU. \u201cThe GNU may have made more market-friendly statements, but it hasn\u2019t manifested in significant policy change,\u201d he said. \u201cThe real difference came from management shifts at Eskom and Ramaphosa\u2019s long-term reform agenda through Operation Vulindlela.\u201d<\/p>\n

While inflation has eased, ordinary South Africans continue to feel the pinch. \u201cSupermarkets are quick to raise prices when fuel goes up, but slow to lower them when it drops,\u201d Amra noted, describing what economists call \u201cprice stickiness.\u201d Combined with slow wage growth and persistent inefficiencies in logistics, households remain under pressure despite improved macroeconomic indicators.<\/p>\n

On the energy front, Amra welcomed the publication of the Integrated Resource Plan 2025, saying it reflects a more cost-sensitive and transparent approach than past strategies. \u201cPrivate generation is being embraced, and if done with good contracting and regulation, it could be a real game-changer for South Africa\u2019s energy future.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, unemployment remains the country\u2019s greatest challenge. The expanded unemployment rate sits around 40%, driven by a mismatch between education and labour market needs. \u201cToo many young people leave school or college without practical skills,\u201d he warned. \u201cWe need a tertiary system that responds to the needs of a real economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

The upcoming medium-term budget will test Treasury\u2019s ability to balance competing priorities. With the U.S. cutting PEPFAR funding for HIV and TB, a program worth up to R5 billion annually, government now faces a funding shortfall of unprecedented scale. Treasury has allocated R750 million to fill the gap, a figure Amra says is \u201cwoefully short\u201d of what\u2019s needed. \u201cIf government doesn\u2019t step in, it will become a real social and human crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

Looking beyond South Africa\u2019s borders, Amra pointed to glimmers of opportunity. The Southern African stone fruit industry\u2019s access to Chinese markets is one such example. \u201cIt\u2019s a positive blip, but we\u2019ll need sustained diversification in exports to make it a trend,\u201d he said. \u201cExport diversification is absolutely critical in this volatile, multipolar world.\u201d<\/p>\n

While signs of progress are visible, Amra\u2019s conclusion was clear and cautious: \u201cWe\u2019re steadier than before, but far from secure. Without bold, sustained action, South Africa\u2019s recovery risks losing its footing.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Listen<\/strong> to the full ASRI Report<\/em> <\/a>on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat and Rashad Amra.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za 3-minute read | 17 October | 13:18 CAT South Africa\u2019s economy is showing signs of fragile stability after years of turbulence, but analysts warn that growth remains too weak to tackle the country\u2019s deep-seated crises of unemployment, poverty, and inequality. Speaking in this week\u2019s ASRI Report, economic analyst Rashad Amra said […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":101557,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[28,4995],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","category-south-africa"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/ASRI-Report-2.jpeg?fit=1600%2C1600&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pc0QIf-qq0","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-23 07:52:40","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}