{"id":104333,"date":"2026-03-08T19:58:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T17:58:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/?p=104333"},"modified":"2026-03-08T19:58:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T17:58:49","slug":"middle-east-tensions-could-drive-fuel-price-increases-warns-economist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/middle-east-tensions-could-drive-fuel-price-increases-warns-economist\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East tensions could drive fuel price increases, warns economist"},"content":{"rendered":"

Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za<\/a>
\n3-minute read
\n05 March 2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

South Africans may currently be experiencing some relief at the pumps, with fuel prices hovering near a four-year low, but global geopolitical tensions could soon reverse the trend.<\/p>\n

Economist Dawie Roodt has warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, the United States and Iran, may have far-reaching consequences for global oil markets and, ultimately, for South Africa\u2019s fuel prices.<\/p>\n

At midnight this week, motorists saw slight increases in fuel costs, with petrol rising by around 20 cents per litre while diesel climbed by between 62 and 65 cents per litre. While the increases may appear modest, analysts caution that they could signal the beginning of greater price pressure.<\/p>\n

Roodt explained that global developments in the oil market and currency fluctuations play a critical role in determining South Africa\u2019s fuel prices.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs an economist, I have to give you a couple of scenarios,\u201d he said. \u201cBut if things remain as they are, then I\u2019m afraid it\u2019s not good news for South Africa and not good news for the world.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Roodt, oil prices have already climbed above $80 per barrel, while the rand has weakened, creating a double impact for local consumers.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe weaker rand means that you have to pay more for oil, and the oil price itself went up,\u201d he said. \u201cInevitably what is going to happen is that petrol prices will go up, diesel prices will go up, and it will put upward pressure on inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rising fuel costs could also influence monetary policy. South Africa recently lowered its inflation target to 3%, but increasing energy costs may complicate the Reserve Bank\u2019s plans.<\/p>\n

\u201cPreviously I thought that the Reserve Bank could reduce interest rates by as much as 50 basis points,\u201d Roodt explained. \u201cWhat happens now is that the Reserve Bank is unlikely to reduce interest rates soon.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added that even if tensions ease and oil prices stabilise, the economic impact of the current geopolitical uncertainty may linger.<\/p>\n

\u201cA shock like this is likely to result in weak economic growth,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

A more severe scenario could emerge if critical global shipping routes are disrupted. Roodt highlighted the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit point, as a major risk.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat leads to a significant increase in the price of oil. Some analysts suggest even as much as $120,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Despite some optimism that rising metal prices could support South Africa\u2019s mining sector during global uncertainty, Roodt remains cautious.<\/p>\n

\u201cI can\u2019t see a good scenario for South Africa as things stand at the moment,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

For now, motorists may still benefit from relatively moderate fuel prices but global developments suggest the reprieve could be short-lived.<\/p>\n

Listen<\/strong> to the full interview on Sabahul Muslim<\/em><\/a> with Moulana Junaid Kharsany and Dawie Roodt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za 3-minute read 05 March 2026 South Africans may currently be experiencing some relief at the pumps, with fuel prices hovering near a four-year low, but global geopolitical tensions could soon reverse the trend. Economist Dawie Roodt has warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, the United States […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":104334,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[28,4997],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-104333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","category-world"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/oil-prices.jpeg?fit=300%2C168&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pc0QIf-r8N","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-29 17:04:55","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104333","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104333"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104333\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104333"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}