{"id":105923,"date":"2026-05-15T11:45:27","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T09:45:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/?p=105923"},"modified":"2026-05-15T11:45:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T09:45:27","slug":"middle-east-report-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/middle-east-report-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

15 May 2026 | 11:45 CAT
\n3-minute read<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Strait of Hormuz: a competition of endurance <\/strong><\/p>\n

The 2026 conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has devolved into a high-stakes war of attrition between the United States and Iran, marked by a collapsed, fragile ceasefire and persistent threats to global energy security.<\/p>\n

According to analysts, the fight has become a competition of endurance, reduced US credibility and is threatening to turn Iran into a \u201cforever war\u201d.<\/p>\n

During this week\u2019s Middle East Report<\/a>, analyst James Dorsey discussed the way the inability to reopen the Strait has undermined the US vow to ensure the \u201cfree flow of energy\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cOpening the Strait of Hormuz is key to his ability to credibly declare victory.\u00a0His options are not good.\u00a0They essentially mean either a prolonged battle of blockades\u2026or military action,\u201d Dorsey said.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s shutdown of the waterway and the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports have transformed the world\u2019s most critical oil chokepoint into a sustained economic siege.<\/p>\n

The discussion outlines two potential military scenarios. The first involves Trump reverting to targeted airstrikes on Iran\u2019s energy infrastructure, including power plants and oil facilities\u2014an approach that recent events over the last two months suggest would likely fail.<\/p>\n

The second would involve US forces seizing control of the Strait through a ground operation to occupy key sections of the Iranian coastline along it \u2014 a daunting task, especially given last week\u2019s CIA report indicating that 30 of the 33 Iranian missile launch sites along the Strait remain operational.<\/p>\n

China calls for free passage of ships<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite China\u2019s calls for the restoration of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the war, and assurances that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, Beijing remains unwilling to assist Washington in negotiating with Tehran.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere’s no indication with Trump in Beijing at this moment that China will pressure Iran,\u00a0nor is there an indication that if it even tried, it would be successful,\u201d Dorsey said.<\/p>\n

Iran stated this week that 30 Chinese-flagged vessels had passed through the Gulf while Trump was in Beijing, making Chinese pressure on Iran even less likely. This is unsurprising, given that China purchases roughly 90% of Iran\u2019s oil exports at steep discounts.<\/p>\n

Gulf reliance on US defence endures <\/strong><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Gulf states are expected to adopt a more consultative and conditional approach in their relations with the United States, though Washington is likely to retain its fundamental supremacy in defence and technology cooperation.<\/p>\n

Dorsey noted that when it comes to a credible defence shield, the Gulf states have nowhere else to turn but the United States. No other power \u2014 particularly not China \u2014 is willing or able to assume the responsibility and enormous cost of providing such protection.<\/p>\n

This reality was underscored this week by UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaiba, who reaffirmed the UAE\u2019s commitment to America as its primary technology partner. The Gulf states\u2019 massive investments in artificial intelligence, data centres, and US technology \u2014 totalling billions of dollars \u2014 further demonstrate that they recognise they have few viable alternatives.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia has floated the idea of a regional non-aggression pact that would include Iran, aimed at lowering tensions and preventing direct attacks between Gulf states and Tehran. However, such a pact appears highly unlikely, as it would almost certainly need to encompass Israel \u2014 a step Jerusalem is extremely unlikely to accept.<\/p>\n

Adding to the complexity, the UAE has emerged as something of an outlier: despite the ongoing war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a secret visit to the UAE, highlighting the deep divisions within the Gulf over how to move forward.<\/p>\n

Rising arrests and expulsions of Shiites across Gulf states <\/strong><\/p>\n

For the past several years, Gulf states with Sunni majorities had pursued greater inclusion of Shiite Muslims, a process that gained momentum after Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations in 2023 under Chinese mediation. Those ties had been severed in 2016 following Saudi Arabia\u2019s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.<\/p>\n

In recent weeks, however, authorities have carried out arrests of Shiite Muslims in Kuwait and the UAE, expelled Pakistani Shiites from the UAE, stripped Bahraini nationals of their citizenship on grounds of collusion with Iran or involvement in inciting or planning violence, and carried out reported deportations of Shiites from Qatar. Dorsey noted that these actions have coincided with rising nationalist rhetoric amid the conflict.<\/p>\n

Listen <\/strong>to the Middle East Report<\/a> with James Dorsey on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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