Middle East Report<\/a>, James Dorsey noted Trump\u2019s impatience with the slow process of mediated negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is increasing the danger of war restarting.<\/p>\n\u201cThe risk is enhanced by President Donald Trump’s impatience\u00a0with the grinding process of indirect negotiations to reopen the strategic\u00a0strait and end the Iran war, and the President’s insistence, amplified by\u00a0senior administration officials, that the United States could revert to military action.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dorsey noted that both sides are carefully calibrating their actions to avoid being seen as violating the ceasefire, as the exchanges offer a glimpse of what a renewed outbreak of hostilities could look like.<\/p>\n
A possible next flashpoint could be an attempt by the US Navy to intercept a very large crude carrier (VLCC) that is reportedly loading 2 million barrels of oil at Iran\u2019s main Kharg Island oil export terminal.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe super tanker is the first such vessel\u00a0to load since April 28. The US Navy is likely to intercept the VLCC if it\u00a0attempts to pass through the strait,\u201d Dorsey said.<\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s intense attacks on Lebanon are another sticking point and have placed a breakthrough deal under threat, with Iran stating that no permanent deal can be reached without a total cessation of hostilities in Beirut.<\/p>\n
Trump faces herculean task to reach a deal that will end the conflict<\/strong><\/p>\nAnalysts observe that convincing Iran to compromise is only one part of the challenge facing\u00a0US President Donald Trump-\u00a0 even if negotiations move forward, reaching a deal\u00a0that allows him to bring the conflict to an end remains a difficult task, particularly because of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review (INARA).<\/p>\n
INARA is a law that was adopted by Congress to limit Obama when he negotiated the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran\u2019s nuclear program. It requires the President to submit any nuclear agreement with Iran to Congress and grants Congress a review period to approve or reject the deal.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt also blocks the President from implementing the deal for up to two months\u00a0while Congress considers it and gives lawmakers the ability to block the deal,\u00a0though that would be subject to a President’s veto,\u201d Dorsey explained.<\/p>\n
Iran’s insistence that any agreement be anchored in a UN Security Council resolution stems from several factors, including the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal under Trump, the requirements of INARA, and Washington’s dual attacks on the Islamic Republic in less than a year. These concerns also underpin Iran’s use of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, with Tehran maintaining that it will retain control over the strategic waterway while ensuring uninterrupted shipping at pre-war levels.<\/p>\n
Middle East plans for future in which Iran plays influential role<\/strong><\/p>\nCountries across the Middle East are increasingly preparing for a regional order in which Iran remains a significant and enduring power, even if few are willing to acknowledge it publicly.<\/p>\n
While the United States, Europe, Iraq and the Gulf states reject Tehran’s claim to control the Strait of Hormuz, many regional governments are nevertheless factoring Iran’s continued influence over the strategic waterway into their post-war calculations.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlready, the public US, European and Gulf state consensus rejecting Iran’s\u00a0imposition of fees on ships transiting the Strait appears to be fracturing,\u201d Dorsey said.<\/p>\n
Analysts note that Gulf states have prioritized de-escalation and diplomatic engagement with Tehran, while also reassessing their security and economic strategies following the recent conflict.<\/p>\n
Speaking at last week’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, signalled a degree of flexibility by suggesting that a temporary transit fee through the Strait of Hormuz could be open to negotiation. The remarks underscored Qatar’s economic interest in ensuring that the strategic waterway remains open and fully operational as quickly as possible.<\/p>\n
Several studies suggest that the war demonstrated Iran’s continued ability to disrupt or influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a factor that regional governments cannot ignore when planning for future trade, energy exports and security arrangements.<\/p>\n
Middle East tensions set to cast shadow over 2026 Soccer World Cup<\/strong><\/p>\nMeanwhile, the Middle East’s geopolitical tensions are set to cast a shadow over this year’s FIFA World Cup, which will feature a record eight teams from the region. While Middle Eastern sides have demonstrated their ability to upset football’s established powers \u2014 with Tunisia defeating France, Saudi Arabia shocking Argentina, and Morocco reaching the semi-finals in 2022 \u2014 political developments may prove as significant as events on the pitch.<\/p>\n
Potential matchups involving Iran could attract particular attention. Scenarios such as the United States facing Iran, or Iran meeting Qatar or Saudi Arabia, would inevitably carry political undertones given recent regional conflicts and tensions. Questions have also been raised about how the Iranian national team and its supporters may be received in the US amid concerns about border security measures, visa restrictions, and allegations of discriminatory treatment of travellers.<\/p>\n
Iran, however, is not the only political issue hanging over the tournament. Critics continue to question FIFA’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly its refusal to sanction Israeli football authorities over the participation of teams based in Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. The controversy has fuelled accusations that football’s governing body has failed to consistently apply its own statutes and international legal standards.<\/p>\n
Listen <\/strong>to the Middle East Report<\/a> with James Dorsey on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Habib Bobat.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
5 June 2026 | 13:00 CAT 4-minute read US-Iranian tit-for-tat over Strait of Hormuz essentially a game of \u2018chicken\u2019 Strait of Hormuz tensions remain highly volatile following a wave of direct tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran. The fight amounts to a high-stakes standoff where neither party wants to back down for fear of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[28,4997],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-106315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-news","category-world"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pc0QIf-rEL","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-06-12 17:22:10","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106315"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106315\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":106316,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106315\/revisions\/106316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}