{"id":61112,"date":"2021-12-28T09:26:32","date_gmt":"2021-12-28T07:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/?p=61112"},"modified":"2021-12-28T09:26:32","modified_gmt":"2021-12-28T07:26:32","slug":"south-africas-political-risk-profile-has-gone-up-a-few-notches-but-its-not-yet-a-failed-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/south-africas-political-risk-profile-has-gone-up-a-few-notches-but-its-not-yet-a-failed-state\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa\u2019s political risk profile has gone up a few notches: but it\u2019s not yet a failed state"},"content":{"rendered":"

In July, South Africa suffered the\u00a0worst violence since the 1990s<\/a>. Highways were blocked and businesses, warehouses and other property looted and set alight. More than 300 people died.<\/p>\n

In mid-October, people were again shocked when a group of men, said to be Somali nationals, openly\u00a0brandished high calibre weapons<\/a>\u00a0during a fight between Somali shop owners and local taxi drivers in public view in Gqeberha, Eastern Cape.<\/p>\n

Not long after 56 people, said to be disgruntled military veterans,\u00a0were arrested<\/a>\u00a0after allegedly holding two government ministers and a deputy minister hostage in Pretoria. They allegedly\u00a0demanded compensation<\/a>\u00a0for their role in the liberation struggle against minority white rule.<\/p>\n

These violent incidents led to a question being asked: has South Africa become a\u00a0failed state<\/a>? The issue has\u00a0come up<\/a>\u00a0and warnings sounded\u00a0before this year\u2019s events<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I teach political risk analysis \u2013 in essence the study of potential harms to a country\u2019s stability and future. The work entails providing new, comprehensive current-day political risk analyses of South Africa each year. This has to be based on a variety of variables, ranging from \u2018legitimacy of government\u2019 to \u2018safety and security\u2019 to \u2018socio-economic conditions\u2019 and many more.<\/p>\n

The concept of a\u00a0failed state<\/a>\u00a0is contested. But, in general, it applies to states where the administrative, political, and economic systems have become so weak that key governmental functions become inoperable or even disintegrate.<\/p>\n

This, in turn, affects the ability of a government to support or improve the conditions of life for most of the citizenry.<\/p>\n

Looking at South Africa, it can be argued that some things in the country are still the same since 1994 in terms of the\u00a0broad macro-political<\/a>\u00a0risk profile of the country. Yet, serious political risks \u2013 such as war, revolution, a coup d\u2019\u00e9tat, hostile neighbours, military involvement in politics \u2013 remain relatively low.<\/p>\n

Even violent racial or ethnic conflict do not seem to be of major concern as they have never threatened the post-1994 democratic project in any substantial manner.<\/p>\n

Risk factors<\/h2>\n

Political risk relating to several variables in the socio-economic domain are increasingly of considerable concern. For example, government shortcomings in providing or facilitating enough\u00a0housing, water, electricity<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0jobs<\/a>\u00a0to millions of people is a huge source of frustration.<\/p>\n

As much as South Africa has changed for the better in certain areas in the sense that it has, for example, become a\u00a0more racially just society<\/a>\u00a0several new red flags have begun to appear in the past two decades.<\/p>\n

The country witnessed increasingly high levels of violence and or dissatisfaction associated with\u00a0labour unrest<\/a>.\u00a0Violent protests<\/a>\u00a0have become a common phenomenon. In fact, risk in the form of violent service delivery protests and other\u00a0unrest has increased<\/a>\u00a0markedly.<\/p>\n

Other forms of socio-economic frustrations also increased as well as\u00a0xenophobia<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Importantly, the\u00a0cost of violence<\/a>\u00a0to the economy is among the highest in the world. The 2021\u00a0Global Peace Index<\/a>\u00a0recently placed the national cost of violence in South Africa is a staggering 19% of the country\u2019s GDP. This is the 16th highest rate in the world.<\/p>\n

Overall the country ranked\u00a0128th out of 161 countries<\/a>\u00a0in the most recent Global Peace Index, which is an index measuring the peacefulness of countries on the basis of 23 quantitative and qualitative indicators.<\/p>\n

A number of other factors also pose high degrees of political risk. These pertain to a need for\u00a0solid and visionary political leadership<\/a>\u00a0at all levels of government to deal with a range of governance problems, high levels of\u00a0corruption<\/a>,\u00a0inefficient government administration<\/a>, especially at\u00a0municipal level<\/a>. Added to this is the need to tackle the never-ending institutional challenges facing Eskom, the power utility, resulting in\u00a0erratic electricity supply<\/a>\u00a0to the detriment of the economy.<\/p>\n

Underlying the protests and related frustrations are\u00a0several years of low economic growth<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0poor governance<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Unemployment is extremely high<\/a>, amid low levels of education and skills.\u00a0Youth unemployment<\/a>, especially, remains one of South Africa\u2019s most pressing challenges.<\/p>\n

Another problem area is\u00a0incapacitated law enforcement institutions<\/a>. Recently,\u00a0parliamentarians expressed concern<\/a>\u00a0that the country\u2019s law enforcement agencies did not have the capacity to handle situations like civil unrest, if it was more widespread than the recent unrest in July 2021. In fact, the Human Rights Commission recently heard that the South African Police Service was not \u201cequal to the task<\/a>\u201d when riots and looting broke out in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in July.<\/p>\n

For the Police Commissioner to admit before a commission of inquiry that a country\u2019s police force was\u00a0outmanned, outgunned and outrun<\/a>\u00a0when called upon to protect citizens, their property and public property against the looters, is most concerning.<\/p>\n

In view of the above, the broad macro-political risk profile of the country has changed fundamentally and worsened substantially\u00a0from 2006 to 2021<\/a>. In this context, the country\u2019s political risk profile must be considered a matter of serious concern.<\/p>\n

So, is the country now a failed state or about to become one?<\/p>\n

Where South Africa stands<\/h2>\n

The annual\u00a0Fund for Peace\u2019s Fragile State Index<\/a>\u00a0can be taken as an authoritative indicator of international state fragility and political risk. The index maps states across the globe and ranks them in terms of 12 categories \u2013 from sustainable (shades of blue) to stable (shades of green) to warning (shades of yellow) to alert (shades of red<\/a>).<\/p>\n

\n
\"Map<\/div>\n
<\/div>
Fragility in the World 2021.<\/span>\u00a0Fragile States Index<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

South Africa\u2019s standing in the index is cause for concern. It has moved from\u00a0stable in 2006 to warning in 2021<\/a>. This clearly indicates a much higher level of political risk in the country. Interestingly, the opposite happened to Botswana, which moved from the warning to the stable category.<\/p>\n

In my view South Africa is probably still in the medium-risk category of political risk.<\/p>\n

Countries like Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Chad, Sudan and South Sudan, which are either in a state of armed conflict or recovering from armed conflict, are indicated as far more \u2018fragile\u2019 on the Fragile State Index, and find themselves in the alert category. These countries are all showing high levels of institutional and social\u00a0fragility<\/a>, based on publicly available indicators that measure the quality of policy and institutions and manifestations of fragility. South Africa, on the other hand, is also miles away from experiences in these countries.<\/p>\n

This implies that state failure is of much more relevance to these countries than South Africa.<\/p>\n

Still, the evidence shows that political risk in the country has increased markedly in certain areas over the past two decades. It\u2019s clear that South Africa has been moving from \u2018medium risk\u2019 into \u2018high-medium risk\u2019 or even \u2018high risk\u2019 in recent years.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, to call South Africa a failed state would be an exaggeration.<\/p>\n

Courtesy of The Conversation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In July, South Africa suffered the\u00a0worst violence since the 1990s. Highways were blocked and businesses, warehouses and other property looted and set alight. More than 300 people died. In mid-October, people were again shocked when a group of men, said to be Somali nationals, openly\u00a0brandished high calibre weapons\u00a0during a fight between Somali shop owners and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61113,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5453],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-social"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cakes.png?fit=400%2C250&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pc0QIf-fTG","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-22 13:50:12","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61112\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radioislam.org.za\/a\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}