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<\/p>\n12 December 2024 | 13:39 CAT
\n2-minute read<\/p>\n
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With Bashar al-Assad\u2019s sudden departure to Moscow, questions about Russia\u2019s motivations for offering asylum have surfaced. As Assad’s regime crumbles, Russia\u2019s calculated move hints at its broader geopolitical ambitions.<\/p>\n
Professor Alica Kizekova, Lecturer in Strategic and Security Studies at Curtin University in Perth discussed the implications of this decision and its potential effects on Syria’s future during an interview on Radio Islam International.<\/p>\n
According to Professor Kizekova, Russia’s alliance with Syria has historically benefited Moscow in its geopolitical pursuits. “We shouldn\u2019t see this as an isolated case,\u201d she explained, referencing Syria\u2019s support for Russia in conflicts such as Georgia and Ukraine. Syria recognised contentious territories like Crimea as Russian and maintained diplomatic ties with separatist regions such as Abkhazia.<\/p>\n
Beyond political backing, Assad\u2019s regime has provided Russia with strategic military advantages. \u201cRussia received military bases, a naval base, and an air base in Syria,\u201d Professor Kizekova said. These assets have bolstered Russia\u2019s regional power and projection capabilities, making Assad\u2019s asylum part of a broader strategy rather than a mere act of refuge.<\/p>\n
The professor also highlighted the precarious position Russia finds itself in as it navigates alliances with Syria\u2019s opposition groups. While Russia supported Assad\u2019s rule, opposition factions favoured Georgia’s territorial integrity, creating a potential clash of interests. \u201cThis is very tricky…the opposition parties actually supported Georgia\u2019s integrity,\u201d she noted. Such complexities could test Russia\u2019s ability to adapt to Syria\u2019s changing political landscape.<\/p>\n
On the global stage, the United States is poised to leverage Russia\u2019s diminished role in Syria. With Assad\u2019s departure, the US could solidify its influence in the region. \u201cThis is a very good case for the United States…it helps them a lot,\u201d Professor Kizekova remarked, emphasising the strategic vacuum Assad\u2019s absence creates.<\/p>\n
As Syria transitions to a new government, international recognition will become a key challenge. Despite Russia\u2019s weakened standing, its veto power in the United Nations Security Council ensures it remains a crucial player. For Syria\u2019s incoming leaders, balancing ties with Moscow, Washington, and regional neighbours will likely define the nation\u2019s trajectory in the post-Assad era.<\/p>\n
Professor Kizekova concluded on a hopeful yet cautious note: \u201cI hope the new established leadership will stabilise and will try to actually work with the other neighbours.\u201d Whether Syria can overcome internal and external challenges to achieve stability remains to be seen.<\/p>\n