Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
🕒 3-minute read
📆 05 July 2025 | 10:20 CAT

📸 Fractured Left, Fading Alliance: As ANC Pressures SACP, New Political Breakaways Loom Ahead of 2026 Elections

In this week’s ASRI Report, Muhammed Cajee, Executive Director of the Auwal Socio-Economic Research Institute (ASRI), delivered a critical analysis of South Africa’s shifting political alliances, with a sharp focus on the ANC’s ultimatum to the South African Communist Party (SACP). The question at the heart of the discussion: Is the Tripartite Alliance reaching its expiry date?

“We need to ask ourselves whether the SACP exists only in brand or whether they actually exist as a constituency,” Cajee opened, challenging the true grassroots strength of the SACP and COSATU. “Do these formations still deliver votes to the ANC?”

The ANC has demanded the SACP declare its intention, whether it plans to remain a supporting alliance partner or contest the 2026 local government elections independently. For Cajee, this move is not just about ballot boxes, but about power and influence in the new political terrain shaped by coalition governance.

“This ultimatum also speaks to SACP leaders who hold positions in government, like Dr Blade Nzimande. It’s a strategic play by the ANC, either you stay in the alliance or prepare to forfeit those positions.”

Cajee highlighted the SACP’s structural challenges, casting doubt on their readiness to campaign:

“They don’t have the financial muscle or the infrastructure to field candidates across 200+ municipalities. This isn’t just about having a manifesto, it’s about branch networks, community trust, and resources.”

He added that unions like COSATU or NUMSA might be expected to bankroll or mobilise support for the SACP, but noted their relative silence on the matter. “There’s been no real movement since the announcement. It raises the question, was this political posturing, or is there an actual plan?”

In a separate development, Floyd Shivambu is reportedly consulting on launching a new political vehicle “Maybe Africa” following his apparent sidelining within the EFF. Cajee pointed to a familiar pattern:

“Just like Malema formed the EFF after being expelled, Shivambu now faces a political survival moment. But launching a party without structure or strategy could be more about maintaining relevance than real political intent.”

This, he said, marks yet another fracture within the ANC’s traditional support base—once unified but now splintered across the EFF, the MK Party, and possibly Shivambu’s new formation.

“The left is cannibalising itself. But in coalition politics, all players, even small ones hold bargaining chips.”

On the broader GNU (Government of National Unity), Helen Zille’s dire warning about economic collapse if the DA exits was met with skepticism from Cajee:

“She’s overstating the DA’s influence. Even without them, Cyril Ramaphosa can survive with a minority government. The real question is whether the EFF would back the ANC in Parliament and indications suggest they might.”

Former President Thabo Mbeki also weighed in this week, accusing Zille of arrogance in suggesting that the future of the country cannot be determined without DA participation in governance.

Cajee suggests that the DA’s ultimatums are losing credibility:

“There’s a pattern of threats from the DA without follow-through. Their influence in the GNU is shrinking, and their refusal to engage meaningfully in the National Dialogue further isolates them.”

In conclusion, Cajee warned that coalition politics will continue to test party loyalty and ideological clarity. As South Africa inches closer to the 2026 local government elections, the once-sacrosanct Tripartite Alliance now teeters on uncertainty.

“If the SACP runs, they may just be angling to become a small yet strategic player in local coalitions competing for the last fragments of ANC loyalty.”

Listen to the ASRI Report on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat and Muhammed Cajee.