Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
6-minute read | 01 November 2025 | 08:00 CAT

Muhammed Cajee unpacks the US-China trade war, G20 summit challenges, and Johannesburg’s political dynamics this week.

In a significant development on the global trade front, China has secured a concession from the United States, halving the so-called fentanyl tariff from 20% to 10%. The agreement, reached during a face-to-face meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea, links tariff relief to Beijing’s commitment to tighten controls on precursor chemicals used in the lethal fentanyl trade.

According to trade analyst Muhammed Cajee, this move reflects China’s growing leverage in global trade negotiations. “China is engaging on critical security and health issues like fentanyl, but on its own terms and without bending to unilateral US pressure,” Cajee explained during this week’s ASRI Report.

The ongoing US-China trade war has major implications for the upcoming G20 government summit in Johannesburg on 21 November. Cajee highlighted that the conflict undermines the very foundations of the G20, a forum that represents 80% of global GDP and is designed to facilitate economic coordination. “If the two largest economies are in an open trade war, consensus becomes nearly impossible,” he said, noting that tariffs, export bans, and technology restrictions hinder cooperation and disrupt global supply chains.

Cajee further emphasised that the ripple effects of the trade war are already visible worldwide. Inflation, slowed economic recovery, and strained supply chains all challenge the G20’s objectives of coordinating global growth, tax policy, and climate initiatives. In this context, alternative multilateral institutions like BRICS are gaining prominence, with China expanding trade access to Africa, historically a domain dominated by Western free-trade policies.

The trade agreement also signals a new precedent in international policy. “Tariffs are no longer just about trade imbalances, they are tools of strategic leverage linked to issues such as national security, public health, and labor policies,” Cajee explained. The US-China dynamics, particularly over access to rare earth metals critical to US industries, underscore a recalibration of the global order, with China emerging not only as an economic powerhouse but also as a political force.

Turning to local politics, the race for Johannesburg’s mayoral seat is heating up. Following Helen Zille’s announcement as a mayoral candidate, Herman Mashaba, former Johannesburg mayor and current leader of Action SA, strongly opposed her candidacy. “Zille does not have black people’s interest at heart,” Mashaba claimed, citing what he described as the DA’s failures in township service delivery and her condescending interactions with Black leaders.

Cajee observed that Mashaba’s opposition could anchor Action SA’s campaign strategy, focusing on racial implications, service delivery concerns, and respect for Johannesburg’s majority population. “The election campaign for Joburg is effectively underway with Mashaba setting the tone against the DA,” he said.

As both global trade tensions and local political contests escalate, South Africa’s role as host of the G20 summit positions it at a critical intersection of diplomacy and governance. Analysts suggest that middle powers like South Africa and Brazil could play a key mediating role between major powers, though outcomes may be more limited than in previous summits.

This week’s ASRI report underscores the intertwining of international and local politics, with trade wars influencing multilateral cooperation and local elections reflecting broader societal tensions.

Listen to the full ASRI Report on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Ibrahim Daya and Muhammed Cajee.