Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read
06 August 2025 | 17:10 CAT

📸 Bolsonaro supporters rally with a cardboard cutout of the former president as his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, speaks to the crowd, highlighting the family’s defiance amid coup allegations and house arrest orders. (AP Photo/Bruna Prado)

The political turmoil in Brazil deepened this week as the country’s Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to be placed under house arrest. The move follows mounting allegations that Bolsonaro plotted a coup to overturn the 2022 election results.

This development, widely seen as a turning point in Brazil’s fragile democracy, stems from the former leader’s continued defiance of legal restrictions. “He’s clearly broken these conditions,” said Professor William Booth of University College London, referring to Bolsonaro’s violation of court orders, including participation in a rally via megaphone through his son.

The charges point to a broader plan to prevent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from assuming power. “He was prepared to use some extra-legal means to prevent Lula from becoming president,” Booth added.

Observers have long drawn comparisons between Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, and Brazil has seemingly mirrored the U.S. Capitol riots. “There was a version of January the 6th,” Booth noted, referencing the violent storming of government buildings in Brasília by Bolsonaro loyalists. Unlike the U.S., Brazilian authorities responded swiftly, with minimal political backlash.

Despite Bolsonaro’s mounting legal woes, his support base remains vocal. “A significant minority, maybe around a third of Brazilians, support these quite extreme reactions,” said Booth, attributing this to long-standing elite resentment towards the left and Brazil’s turbulent history, particularly the 1964 military coup backed by the U.S.

As cracks form within Bolsonaro’s political alliance, figures like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas have begun distancing themselves. “It is quite a broad but fractured coalition,” Booth explained, noting tensions between moderate right-wing leaders and Bolsonaro’s sons, who remain politically active.

With his political career likely over, attention now shifts to whether the Bolsonaroist movement can survive his downfall or if it will splinter into weaker factions. “Brazilian politics is incredibly fragmented, these things can change very quickly,” Booth cautioned.

Meanwhile, President Lula appears to be leveraging U.S. pressure, including Trump-era tariffs, to bolster nationalist sentiment. Brazil is also doubling down on alliances through BRICS, seeking economic independence from the U.S. “There is a kind of decoupling process going on,” Booth observed.

As Brazil looks beyond the Americas for its future, the world watches closely.

Listen to the full interview on The Daily Round-Up with Moulana Juanid Kharsany and Professor William Booth.