Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
2 April 2025 | 13:44 CAT
3-minute read

ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula announced during a media briefing yesterday that the party is confident the budget will be approved today. Meanwhile, the DA has accused the ANC and ActionSA of betraying South Africans after they agreed to adopt a finance committee report that supports the national budget and includes the 0.5 percentage point value-added tax (VAT) increase.

Political analyst Professor Vasti Roodt says the public statements from the parties are part of the negotiation process and act as tactics to force opponents to make concessions behind closed doors.

“It is not clear who has overplayed their hand. But this is what one finds in negotiations,” Professor Roodt said, adding that both parties are in a position where one is waiting for the other to blink first. “That is not a place one wants to be in negotiations. One wants to be in a place where one is jointly committed to continuing the relationship and find ways to achieve an outcome that’s beneficial for both sides.”

Analysts suggest that ActionSA, which is not part of the GNU, is playing the role of objective observer in the budget negotiations. The party’s involvement is seen as a move to improve its standing in South Africa’s political landscape. Roodt said that while ActionSA’s approval of the VAT hike included in the budget may be beneficial to the party in the short term, it might be damaging in the long run.

The rift between the DA and ANC about the budget has raised concerns about the stability of the GNU, and analysts suggest that it poses a serious threat to the hastily cobbled-together ten-party coalition.

“This time, it certainly looks like a much more serious break. It was a coalition that was put together very quickly based on a statement of intent. At the time, we were cheerful about this achievement among South African opposition parties,” Professor Roodt observed, adding that forming coalitions in other countries generally takes much longer to flesh out before implementation.

The instability spells trouble for South Africa’s economy, particularly given the country’s high debt.

“We are hugely exposed to financial markets because… [we are] carrying a massive amount of foreign debt. Markets don’t like uncertainty,” Professor Roodt said, adding that the country is at a crossroads: either EFF, a populist party, will join the GNU and change the policy and fiscal direction, or the uncertainty will result in a minority government, which means that every decision will have to be voted for in parliament.

Despite concerns over the possible collapse of the GNU, Professor Roodt reassures South Africans that coalition challenges are a global norm. She notes that while the instability creates uncertainty, it does not mean the country will collapse. If the GNU fails, alternative governance models—such as a new coalition or a minority government—could emerge. Professor Roodt emphasises that South Africa’s coalition difficulties stem from historically opposing parties attempting to govern together, but similar struggles have been overcome in other democracies worldwide.

Listen to the full interview on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Habib Bobat.