[Photo: Corruption Watch]

In just two days, millions of South Africans will head to the polls in what is being hailed as the most crucial election since 1994. As the nation braces for this pivotal moment, political parties are making a final, fervent push to secure votes from cities, informal settlements, and rural areas alike.

Recent polls suggest a decline in support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC), while opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and ActionSA, are gaining favour among the electorate.

Political analyst Dirk Kotze noted that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has tested most of its systems in preparation for the election. Special votes are taking place today and tomorrow. Having attended several events at the results centre, Kotze confirmed that everything appears to be in place.

The ruling ANC party, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, faces declining support and may receive less than 50% of the vote. This would be the first time since 1994 that the ANC might not secure a parliamentary majority. The ANC is expected to remain the largest party but may need to form a coalition to govern.

Many South Africans feel the ANC has not significantly improved their lives post-apartheid. There are major concerns, including unemployment (32%), poverty, violent crime, corruption scandals, and the unstable power supply.

“Lately, in the last month or so, there have not been many changes in the support patterns of the public. The opinion polls differed to some extent, but the ANC is between 40 – 48 %. One thing we must not do is look at the numbers attending their rallies in terms of indication of public support in general,” Kotze said.

Kotze believes that if it weren’t for the emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, this campaign would lack significant activity.

“Political parties have gone through processes trying to present themselves in terms of policy matters; in previous elections, more focus was on personalities and the leaders of the parties instead of various substantial matters,” he said.

Regarding outstanding matters, there were 17 court cases taken to the electoral court. Only three minor issues remain unresolved, but Kotze highlighted that they are not significant enough to impact the election itself.

Concerns exist about potential manipulation, including bribery or violence, to exploit the system’s flaws.

According to Kotze, ensuring the security of the warehouses storing ballot papers and maintaining cybersecurity is a top priority for the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). Previously, there was a minor security incident underscoring the need for vigilance. President Ramaphosa has also issued a proclamation to extend the military deployment, already in place for several months, until March next year. These measures are being closely monitored to prevent any security breaches.

“We will see some significant information by Friday [31 May 2024] and Saturday [1 June 202], and some analysis can be made, but on the day of the election and Thursday, there will be counting, so it will be difficult to judge the results,” he said.

South Africa’s upcoming election is set to be a defining moment with potential new political dynamics and challenges, particularly regarding coalition governance and the integration of independent candidates.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Political analyst Dirk Kotze, here.