Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read
16 April 2025 | 13:23 CAT

President Cyril Ramaphosa and DA leader John Steenhuisen. (Photos: Gallo Images / Jeffrey Abrahams | Gallo Images / OJ Koloti | Rawpixel)

A recent poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) suggests a political shake-up, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) edging past the African National Congress (ANC) for the first time in IRR polling history. Conducted in the wake of the controversial VAT increase, the data reveals significant changes in voter sentiment, particularly on economic lines.

According to Herman Pretorius from the IRR, “The DA is now sitting at 30.3 percent, while the ANC has dipped to 29.7 percent.” This marks a critical moment, he notes, adding that “the DA seems to have managed to triple or almost quadruple their support from Black voters,” with a notable increase from 5% to 18%.

Pretorius attributes the shift to the party’s alignment with economic concerns that resonate with the electorate, saying, “If bread and butter, tax, income, and socio-economic questions define our politics going forward, then the ANC is in trouble.”

The IRR ensures its methodology is comprehensive. Of those polled, 37.1% came from tribal land, 30.3% from townships, and 22% were isiZulu speakers—showcasing a balanced and representative sample. “We are confident our sample reflects the reality of South Africa,” said Pretorius.

Smaller parties like the EFF and MK have also seen a rise in support. “All three of the parties that opposed the VAT hike – DA, MK, and EFF – gained traction,” he explained, suggesting a backlash against the ANC-led VAT increase. In contrast, GNU-aligned parties like the Patriotic Alliance and ISP saw a decline.

Pretorius cautions that while polls reflect current sentiment, they are not predictions. “It’s a snapshot of what the public was thinking at a specific time,” he said, but he also pointed out that this trend has been building as economic frustrations mount.

With economic performance historically tied to ANC support, the IRR’s findings suggest that unless the ruling party addresses core economic concerns, it may continue to lose ground.

Listen to the full interview on The Daily Round-Up with Moulana Junaid Kharsany and Herman Pretorius here.