Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za

3-minute read
27 September 2023 | 13:35 CAT

Dried maize plants in a drought-hit field in Lichtenburg, North West in 2015. (Photo: Waldo Swiegers / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Understanding the potential effect of the typically hotter and drier El Niño phenomenon on agriculture and food security in South Africa in the upcoming months is crucial, experts say. El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific.

According to the South African Weather Service’s latest seasonal watch, the multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country during the mid to late spring seasons.

“El Niño is very unpredictable as far as weather patterns are concerned. Normally, El Niño is associated with dry conditions especially over the Western parts of the country. However, the South African Weather Services are also predicting higher or above levels of the normal rainfall for the North Eastern parts of the country,” said Janse Rabie, the head of AgriSA’s Centre of Excellence on Natural Resources.

Rabie said the El Niño occurrence usually lasts between 12 and 18 months, and typically, we expect hotter, drier conditions. If what is happening in the Northern Hemisphere bears out, we’re in for a scorching summer in the Southern Hemisphere, with us in particular.

“Our concern is mainly heat and heat stress and what that would do for the various commodities, but we do think that we’re in a good position at least for the six to 18-month period with regard to higher temperatures, coupled with lower rainfall,” Rabie said.

In late summer, “that’s where we expect really high temperatures and low rainfall and where we hope that our built-up resources – the soil moisture content and dam levels – carry us through,” he added.

Load-shedding is placing severe additional strain on the agricultural sector, Rabie said. “We saw that in the last season — and we had a good rainfall season — that load-shedding had enormous implications for irrigation farming in particular and definite adverse effects

Load-shedding is detrimental for irrigation farming in particular, Rabie said.

Listen to the full interview on Your World Today with Annisa Essack.