Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
12 February 2024 | 12:00 CAT
3 min read

Amidst much celebration during President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address on Thursday night, where he repeatedly assured the nation of an imminent end to load shedding, scepticism remained prevalent among numerous South Africans.

This scepticism stemmed from repeated promises made over the past few years, including the appointment of a new Minister of Electricity announced by the president last year. The irony unfolded mere hours after the SONA speech when Eskom announced the implementation of Stage 6 load shedding for the first time since November last year. Subsequently, the situation changed once more, this time to Stage 5.

President Ramaphosa in his speech proudly stated, “We are confident that the worst is behind us and the end of load shedding is finally within reach. But we are not stopping there to ensure we are not facing a similar crisis ever again.”

Early Saturday morning, the power utility announced that two more generating units had broken down, leading to Stage 6 load shedding due to insufficient emergency reserves. By Saturday evening, Eskom revealed that 10 generating units had been offline since Thursday, with five of them experiencing boiler tube leaks. This loss of generation capacity, combined with delays in returning units from maintenance, forced Eskom to implement Stage 6 load shedding.

The escalation represents a departure from Eskom’s intention to limit load shedding to stage 4, contradicting President Cyril Ramaphosa’s assurance during his State of the Nation Address that the end of load shedding is on the horizon.

Clyde Mallinson, an energy expert speaking to Radio Islam, emphasised the severity of the current situation. “I am wondering whether the Minister of Electricity is sometimes what they call a Minister with no portfolio, because they don’t seem to have almost any power stations operating currently,” he said.

Mallinson believes that the new minister appears to have assumed responsibilities that should belong to Eskom, particularly concerning discussions about the coal fleet, which is outside his jurisdiction to repair or maintain. Instead, the Minister should focus on articulating long-term, concrete plans for the energy sector. Daily operational plans should remain under Eskom’s control.

Mallinson pointed out that Eskom anticipates that load shedding will persist for the remainder of the year and according to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), a blueprint for electricity provision development over the next 25 years, load shedding is projected to continue until 2030, “Therefore it is difficult to understand why politicians continue to make predictions about when loadshedding will end when it is very clear that the performance of the coal fleet is unpredictable,” he added.

Mallinson noted that a reduction in demand has contributed to the occurrence of lower stages of load shedding during January.

According to him, the demand figures provided by Eskom do not include rooftop solar installations. This creates two potential scenarios: firstly, a significant uptake of solar installations by both households and businesses, and secondly, a potential downturn in the economy leading to reduced demand, with businesses struggling to cope, and industries like mines and smelters either idling or scaling back operations.

“We currently have a coal fleet where the operational units are under increased strain due to the additional workload caused by the non-functioning units. This heightened demand on the operational units makes them more susceptible to breakdowns,” he said.

Mallinson believes it’s time to consider decommissioning parts of the coal fleet as they are gradually decommissioning themselves. Some units require retirement, but currently, there seems to be a chaotic rush to address the situation.

Electricity Minister Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa held a briefing on Sunday to address the escalation of load shedding stages. He indicated that stage 6 load shedding is expected to ease by Wednesday, following challenges with boiler tubes at approximately nine power stations.

According to an Eskom statement released today, Stage 5 loadshedding will continue to be implemented until 05:00 on Tuesday. Thereafter, loadshedding will be reduced to Stage 3.

The Minister also highlighted that the approach they are taking to end load shedding involves addressing inherent risks, such as the need to increase load shedding to accommodate planned maintenance.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Clyde Mallinson, Director at Virtual Energy and Power (VEP), here.