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Middle East Report – Dr James M. Dorsey

Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
9 November 2024 | 13:00 CAT
3 min read

Former U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act swiftly on key policy matters, advising him last month to “do what you need to do, just get it done before I get inaugurated,” according to Dr James M. Dorsey.

“The question is what happens after the interregnum, in other words, the period between now and the inauguration of Trump on the 20th of January whether or not Netanyahu tries to exploit that situation in a way that binds Trump’s hands once he is actually in office,” said Dorsey.

Dorsey stated that while Donald Trump promoted himself as a master negotiator capable of striking quick deals and bringing opposing parties together, his record in his first presidency didn’t fully support this claim. For instance, Trump’s attempts to negotiate a nuclear agreement with North Korea ultimately unravelled. Looking ahead, he may believe he has a new opportunity to broker a deal with Iran, especially with Iran’s current president appearing more open to engagement with the West, including the possibility of a nuclear agreement that could provide Iran with sanctions relief.

“So we could very well see that Trump may not be very interested in the Palestine issue, but he is interested in Iran and may take a different tact instead of what he did in 2018, which was withdrawn from the nuclear agreement and adopt a maximum pressure against Iran,” he said.

The one thing that could interest Trump in the Palestine issues is that he wants to crown the achievement he claims of bringing the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

Dorsey suggests that one factor that could draw Trump’s interest in the Palestinian issue is his desire to solidify what he views as a major achievement of his first presidency: brokering diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Trump likely sees this as a crowning success and may seek to expand his legacy in the region further by addressing the Palestinian question.

“The crown jewel would be bringing Saudi Arabia to do the same. But, Saudi Arabia said only if there is a pathway towards an independent Palestinian State, which could be why Trump would be interested, but the problem is, at the same time, the Saudis want a legally binding defence arrangement with the US,” he said.

Dorsey believes that Trump is unlikely to support legally binding defence agreements that could commit the U.S. to automatic military intervention.

He recalled that in 2019, following Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities, Donald Trump’s response was notably transactional: he downplayed the significance of the attack on the U.S., stating, “Not an attack on us, it is an attack on the Saudis.” He added that if the Saudis wanted the U.S. to step in and “clean the mess up,” they would need to pay for it.

A significant portion of Donald Trump’s base comes from the evangelical community in the U.S., which is strongly pro-Israel. Trump’s support for Israel has been driven not only by his own right-wing beliefs but also by the influence of this community. However, as Trump enters his second term in office with no prospect of a third, he may be less reliant on his base’s demands and expectations. “How that works out, we will have to wait and see,” Dorsey noted, as he believes Trump’s priorities could shift without the pressure of re-election.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Dr James M. Dorsey, an Award-winning scholar & journalist, here.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist, scholar, and Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. He is the author of ‘The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer’.

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