4 July 2025 | 10:31 CAT
3-minute read

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for critical talks in Washington, international analysts caution that even a potential ceasefire in Gaza may not be enough to secure the sweeping diplomatic victories some have anticipated.

Netanyahu’s upcoming meeting with former US President Donald Trump has sparked speculation that the two may announce a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as part of a broader political manoeuvre. However, experts warn that the apparent narrowing of positions between Israel and Hamas is, in fact, built on fragile diplomatic language rather than substantive agreement.

James Dorsey, a senior analyst and Middle East expert, believes that the Israeli government’s core demands remain fundamentally at odds with those of Hamas.

“The fundamental gap remains that Hamas wants an end to the war and wants a ceasefire, which would be for 60 days, to be guaranteed to lead to a permanent end of the war. Netanyahu has this week made very clear once again that there is no end to the war until Hamas has been destroyed,” Dorsey explained.

While media reports have hinted at progress toward a ceasefire, Dorsey cautions that the promises on the table are significantly weaker than they appear. “What the proposal at the moment says is that Trump and the United States would work towards a guarantee for an end to the war. That’s a very different proposition than a guarantee to end the war.” This nuanced distinction may prove to be a stumbling block, as it is uncertain whether Hamas will accept such terms.

On the ground in Gaza, Israel appears to be gambling on internal dissent to weaken Hamas’s grip on power. Israeli forces are reportedly arming factions within Gaza, hoping that tribal leaders and clans might rise against Hamas. But according to Dorsey, this strategy is unlikely to succeed.

“The tribal leaders have made very clear that they are not vassals of Israel, that they are as opposed to Israel as they are of Gaza, and therefore the suggestion that the tribal leaders would revolt against Hamas and then cooperate with Israel in a post-war administration may be indeed a Fata Morgana, if you wish.”

This indicates that Palestinians, even those critical of Hamas, are unwilling to align with Israeli interests in managing Gaza’s future.

The complexities on the diplomatic front extend beyond Gaza. There has been speculation that Netanyahu’s broader goal includes encouraging Arab and Muslim nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and Syria, to normalise relations with Israel in exchange for peace moves. Trump reportedly hopes that a Gaza ceasefire might catalyse this momentum.

However, the likelihood of Syria recognising Israel appears slim. While backchannel talks have been confirmed, the key obstacle remains Israel’s continued occupation of the Golan Heights, which it seized in 1967 and formally annexed in 1981. Syrian leadership, even after years of military setbacks and the collapse of much of its defence infrastructure, is unlikely to accept formal diplomatic ties without significant concessions.

The two sides may yet reach limited security understandings, particularly in the context of Israeli airstrikes that have weakened Syria’s military capabilities. Israel’s military dominance in the region has expanded since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, further complicating the prospect of mutual recognition.

Netanyahu’s domestic political calculations also hang in the balance. There is widespread speculation that he hopes a military success story—particularly regarding confrontations with Iran—could pave the way for electoral gains. Yet, the data appears less encouraging for the embattled Israeli leader.

Dorsey pointed out that while some believe Netanyahu is eyeing a snap election buoyed by military achievements, “The latest polls don’t show that. They show that his popularity is only marginally increased, even though his Likud party could emerge as the largest political party in Israel from a snap election, if that is what Netanyahu has in mind.”

This suggests that Netanyahu’s belief in a sweeping electoral boost from foreign policy victories may not materialise as expected. While his Likud party could remain competitive, it is unlikely to secure the decisive support required to cement his leadership unchallenged.

Meanwhile, the people of Gaza continue to suffer the daily consequences of a protracted war, while their political future is shaped by forces both within and beyond their borders. The idea that internal divisions might allow Israel to shape a post-war Gaza appears increasingly detached from the realities on the ground.

As the ceasefire negotiations unfold, they will likely be driven by the complex interplay of US political ambitions, Israeli electoral calculations, and the enduring Palestinian demand for self-determination—none of which seem close to alignment.

James Dorsey’s full analysis can be found at his Substack page: jamesmdorsey.substack.com.

Listen to the Middle East Report on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.