Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
7 February 2025 | 16:20 CAT
2 min read

U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal regarding Gaza has sparked fears of derailing ongoing ceasefire negotiations and jeopardising Saudi recognition of Israel, according to award-winning scholar and journalist Dr James M. Dorsey.

Dorsey explained that the ceasefire plan for Gaza had three phases, with only the first phase fully negotiated. “The second phase is to be negotiated. Those negotiations are supposed to start this week. In fact, they were supposed to start on Monday,” he said. These discussions aim to ensure further prisoner exchanges and, crucially, the “complete and final withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.”

However, he warned that Trump’s plan—interpreted by many as an effort to take control of Gaza and expel Palestinians—could render the negotiations meaningless. “There’s nothing to negotiate if the United States is taking over, claiming it’s its territory, and then wanting to expel the population and build an upmarket beach resort, essentially,” Dorsey said.

Beyond the immediate ceasefire, Trump’s proposal also risks shifting the nature of the Gaza war itself. “You could start to see the character of the Gaza war change, with Hamas suddenly becoming, with Arab support, a resistance movement against ethnic cleansing,” he noted.

Saudi Arabia draws a line

Trump’s statements have also cast doubt on Saudi Arabia’s potential diplomatic recognition of Israel. “Saudi Arabia has made very clear, and it did so immediately after Trump announced his plan, that it will settle for nothing less than a Palestinian state alongside Israel in exchange for diplomatic relations,” Dorsey stated. Yet, he pointed out a potential silver lining—Saudi Arabia’s financial leverage over the U.S. “On the eve of Trump making his announcement, Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, and Trump were essentially negotiating how much Saudi Arabia would invest in the United States over the coming four years of Trump’s presidency,” he revealed, citing figures ranging from $600 billion to a trillion dollars. “That gives Saudi Arabia leverage, and we’ll have to see how that plays out in the near future.”

West Bank uncertainty

While Gaza remains the focus, Trump’s stance on the West Bank also raises questions. “Trump keeps everyone guessing as he weighs endorsing Israeli annexation of the West Bank,” Dorsey noted, recalling Trump’s previous moves, such as recognising Israel’s control over East Jerusalem.

During his recent announcement, Trump briefly addressed the West Bank, stating he would reveal the U.S. position on its potential annexation within four weeks. Dorsey believes this could be part of Trump’s familiar strategy of unpredictability. “Trump likes to play the unpredictable madman who throws out these things, intimidates his rivals, his interlocutors, and changes the discourse in the process,” he suggested.

Trump’s words could serve multiple purposes, Dorsey argued. “He may be saying to the Saudis, ‘You may want to do this deal on diplomatic relations with Israel sooner rather than later because you’ve got this madman in Jerusalem.’ And he may be saying to the Iranians, ‘You may want to negotiate a new nuclear agreement sooner rather than later before this madman in Jerusalem attacks you.’”

Algeria’s unexpected move

In an unexpected development, Algeria—traditionally a vocal critic of Israel—has hinted at potential recognition of the country if Israel accepts an independent Palestinian state. “This is indeed one fallout of Trump’s Gaza resettlement plan,” Dorsey remarked.

Algeria’s statement aligns with previous positions taken by other Arab and Muslim nations. “To be fair, the principle of recognizing Israel if Israel accepts a Palestinian state goes back to the 1982 Arab peace plan launched by Saudi Arabia,” Dorsey said. However, he emphasized that this was the first time Algeria had explicitly made such a policy statement, and its timing was significant.

As tensions rise and diplomatic calculations shift, the impact of Trump’s proposal on the region remains uncertain. “We’ve got to wait and see what this really all means,” Dorsey concluded.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Junaid Kharsany and Dr James M. Dorsey, an Award-winning scholar & journalist, here.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist, scholar, and Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. He is the author of ‘The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer’.