Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
22 January 2025 | 12:12 CAT
3-minute read

Japan’s snap election a high-stakes gamble

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has scheduled an early national election to be held on 8 February 2026 to get public approval for her plans, which include higher government and defence spending as well as tax cuts. The election is PM Takaichi’s first since becoming the country’s first female premier in October and will elect all 465 seats in the lower house of parliament.

Analysts have expressed uncertainty about whether the elections will bring about radical change or provide stability in a country that is experiencing a major shift in its long-dominant political landscape, unprecedented volatility in its financial markets, and deep-seated structural demographic challenges.

PM Takaichi has enjoyed a surge in popularity since she stated in November 2025 that Japan would intervene if China were to launch an attack on Taiwan. Analysts suggest this as a possible motivation for holding the snap election.

“She’s taking advantage of the surge in her popularity because of the conflict with China, where she said that Japan would intervene in a blockade if China launches it on Taiwan,” Walden Bello, chairperson of the Research Advocacy Institute, said today during the Asia Pacific Report.

However, Bello warned that by the time the elections roll around, Japanese citizens may see Takaichi’s statement as an unnecessary provocation of China.

While Takaichi is popular, victory in the high-stakes election is not guaranteed. Japan’s governing party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), faces both internal and external fragility. Additionally, several opposition parties have joined together into a new group, which means the election could be closely contested.

While the opposition party may push to permanently remove the food taxes, Takaichi has promised to cut the 8% tax on food for two years, which she says will help families, create jobs and encourage people to spend more, even though it would significantly reduce government income.

This announcement pushed government bond interest rates to their highest level in 27 years, which indicates concern about government finances.

Many voters are concerned about rising prices, with a recent poll revealing cost of living as the biggest worry, far ahead of security or foreign policy.

Takaichi’s government also wants to double defence spending to 2% of GDP due to growing tensions with China and pressure from USA.

The upcoming election on 8 February will indicate whether the Japanese public approve of her plans or not.

Thailand head to ballot box with big questions on reform and military influence

The 2026 Thai general election is also set to take place on 8 February this year. The People’s Party, a rebranded progressive movement, is currently the frontrunner ahead of the election. This party is a comeback after being blocked before. Previously branded the Move Forward Party, it won the 2023 election but was prevented from forming a government by the military appointed Senate and was later dissolved by a court.

“People really want reform, but there is a very strong aristocratic conservative establishment that if the People’s Party does not win an absolute majority, it might be again prevented from forming a coalition government,” Bello said.

To avoid past obstacles, the party has softened its positions on sensitive issues like the royal insult law and the military, which previously led to strong resistance from conservative institutions.

Opinion polls show strong support for the People’s Party and its prime ministerial candidate, putting it ahead of the ruling party and other major rivals.

US capture of Venezuela’s Maduro: impact on Asia Pacific

The capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces in January 2026, known as Operation Absolute Resolve, has significantly altered geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, primarily by heightening concerns over the “rules-based international order” and shifting China’s regional strategy.

“When that happened in early January, there was a flurry of news that this reassertion of the so-called “Donroe Doctrine” would mean a green light for China to take over Taiwan,” Bello noted.

However, Bello said, China is behaving in a way that indicates it respects the rule of international law and will therefore not use force to capture it even though Taiwan belongs to China.

“In contrast to the behaviour of the United States, China is coming across as a civilised power that really respects international law,” Bello said.

Bello admits he had already predicted a dramatic, SEAL-style capture of Nicolás Maduro — driven less by intelligence sources than by a hunch about Donald Trump’s competitive instincts. The theory was sound. The article, however, was published eight hours before the capture of Maduro. As it turns out, Bello was “outscooped by Donald Trump,” in his words.

Listen to the Asia Pacific Report on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.