Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
17 March 2025 | 14:08 CAT
4-minute read

Rasool’s Expulsion from the US: Diplomatic Fallout and Future Implications for SA-US Relations

• Rasool’s expulsion was abrupt and violated diplomatic protocols, with analysts suggesting it was politically motivated rather than a justified response to his remarks.

• Existing geopolitical tensions, particularly South Africa’s independent foreign policy and BRICS alignment, suggest that bilateral relations would have remained strained even without Rasool’s comments.

• The fallout raises concerns over South Africa’s continued participation in AGOA, with US lawmakers already pushing to limit its trade benefits despite the economic interdependence between the two nations.

• South Africa may need to rethink its diplomatic approach by engaging with influential US business figures rather than relying solely on formal government-to-government relations.

• Rasool’s expulsion signals a shift in international diplomacy, where political agendas and social media influence can override traditional diplomatic protocols, posing challenges for South Africa’s foreign policy.

Is Rasool’s expulsion from the US warranted?

The South African Ambassador to the United States, Ebrahim Rasool, was ordered to leave the country following his comments during a Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) webinar. The Ambassador discussed numerous issues, including the economic and political relations between South Africa and the Americas.

Qaanitah Hunter, during this week’s Debrief Report, said Rasool exercised restraint in his comments during the webinar.  Rasool emphasised the importance of maintaining diplomatic ties with the US, citing its status as one of South Africa’s largest trading partners.

“Part of his comments was him reflecting on the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement and Trump’s policies, especially with relation to the Afrikaner lobby groups in South Africa saying that at the heart of it is white supremacy. That caught the attention of a man named Joel Pollak,” Hunter said.

South African-born Pollak is an American conservative political commentator, radio host, and attorney. He is currently the editor-at-large for Breitbart News. Notably, he has his sights set on the role of United States ambassador to South Africa.

Hunter cited his ambition to attain the ambassadorship, his power to influence high-ranking individuals in Trump’s circle, and his increasing connection to AfriForum as reasons for him amplifying Rasool’s comments, which caught the attention of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who immediately declared him persona non grata.

“That is against all diplomatic rules, against the Vienna Convention,” Hunter said. The process of expelling a diplomat who has acted against established guidelines includes a meeting with the country’s foreign minister, followed by a formal notification to register the country’s disdain.

“All of these processes were flouted, and it was announced on X. And then a few hours later, [Rasool was] given a notice that he had 72 hours to leave the country and Ambassador Rasool is in back in South Africa,” Hunter noted.

Would US-SA tensions continue to escalate, regardless of Rasool’s remarks?

Given the existing tensions between the United States and South Africa—stemming from issues such as South Africa’s land expropriation policy, legal actions against Israel, and differing political stances—it is plausible that the bilateral relationship would have continued to deteriorate irrespective of Ambassador Rasool’s comments.

Analysts suggest Rasool has been targeted because of Trump’s war on SA, with South African academic and activist Na’eem Jeenah stating that Rasool’s expulsion was inevitable regardless of his remarks and emphasising that our country is being targeted for its independent diplomatic approach, particularly regarding global conflicts and its BRICS alignment.

While President Cyril Ramaphosa is not discouraged by the latest development, parties in the GNU have had varying responses. The Freedom Front (FF) Plus criticised the ANC for its anti-American stance, and the DA said Rasool’s comments were unwise. Additionally, the DA urged the government to expedite diplomatic negotiations with the US.

Al Jama-ah leader Ganief Hendricks defended Rasool, calling the Trump administration out for targeting Rasool based on religion. The EFF called on President Ramaphosa to block the potential US ambassadorship of Pollak, citing his divisive views and close ties to the current US administration. EFF leaders argued against accepting an ambassador perceived as hostile to South Africa, emphasising the need for diplomatic respect.

President Ramaphosa now faces a critical decision: whether to pursue engagement with the US in an effort to de-escalate tensions, or adopt a more cautious, wait-and-see approach.

Does this diplomatic fallout threaten the future of AGOA?

One of the major concerns arising from this diplomatic fallout is the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade agreement that allows duty-free exports from South Africa to the US. There has already been pressure within the US to limit or exclude South Africa from AGOA, with some US lawmakers arguing that South Africa no longer needs these trade benefits. However, analysts warn that excluding South Africa would be counterproductive for both nations, as US companies also rely on AGOA-related trade agreements.

With over 600 US companies operating in South Africa, the economic relationship between the two nations is deeply intertwined. Major corporations, such as Union Carbide, play a crucial role in the country’s mining and manufacturing sectors. South African exports to the US include a significant amount of processed goods rather than raw materials, meaning thousands of jobs could be at risk if trade relations deteriorate further.

Hunter highlighted that under Trump’s leadership, US international relations have shifted towards a form of ‘mini-lateralism,’ where countries are expected to negotiate individual deals with the US rather than relying on multilateral agreements. Nations that have successfully navigated Trump’s policies, such as India, have done so by making direct deals with his administration while distancing themselves from broader alliances like BRICS.

A new diplomatic strategy?

Given the unpredictability of US foreign policy, South Africa may have to rethink its approach to diplomacy. Some analysts suggest that instead of relying solely on formal government-to-government relations, South Africa could engage more with influential US business figures who hold sway within Trump’s inner circle. This strategy is already being tested, as South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) laws have reportedly been a point of contention for US billionaire Elon Musk, whose companies face regulatory restrictions in the country. The antagonism towards Musk appears to have influenced Trump’s stance towards South Africa, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

In the short term, South Africa may opt for a strategy of laying low until a more stable administration takes office in the US. However, with global geopolitics shifting rapidly, South Africa must also prepare for continued economic and diplomatic challenges.

A precedent for future relations

The expulsion of Ebrahim Rasool represents more than just a diplomatic dispute—it signals a broader shift in international relations where social media announcements replace traditional diplomatic channels. As South Africa navigates this volatile landscape, its leaders must carefully weigh the risks of engaging with a US administration that has shown little regard for conventional diplomatic norms.

For now, South Africa remains in a precarious position, balancing its economic interests with the need to maintain an independent foreign policy. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the country can successfully weather this diplomatic storm or face further economic repercussions from an increasingly adversarial US administration.

Listen to the Debrief Report on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Junaid Kharsany.