Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
24 October 2024 | 10:52 SAST
5-minute read

In a year celebrated globally as a “super democracy”, North Africa’s recent elections in Algeria and Tunisia cast a shadow over supposed democratic ideals, signalling a backslide towards authoritarianism. Both countries held elections recently, but outcomes reveal concerning trends.

Tunisian President Kais Saied and Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune both reportedly secured over 90% of the vote, a margin critics argue underscores their authoritarian grip.

Tunisia, the country that inspired the Arab Spring, faces harsh criticism as Saied consolidates power, having used courts to exclude opposition candidates, undermining the democratic spirit that once thrived there.

In this week’s Media Lens with Ibrahim Deen said, “Both presidents apparently awarded more than 90% of their votes. In the case of Tunisia, the courts were used to actually…exclude political opponents.”

Meanwhile, Algeria, whose “Hirak” movement just five years ago pushed out its long-term president, now seems to have regressed as Tebboune reasserts tight control, ensuring little space for dissent.

International analysts observe that Western powers are tacitly complicit in this democratic regression. Eager for stability, they appear willing to overlook human rights violations in exchange for strengthened border controls and security cooperation.

These governments view stability as essential, especially given North Africa’s proximity to Europe and its role in migration management. As a result, countries like Egypt and the UAE continue to support authoritarian regimes in the region, with minimal pressure from the West to halt this interference.

Media coverage of this crisis, particularly in Western outlets, has also been limited. Algeria’s election, aside from sporadic coverage in French outlets like Le Monde Diplomatique, went largely unreported in mainstream Western media. Tunisia, due to its symbolic role in the Arab Spring, received more attention, but coverage neglected the influence of regional powers like Egypt and the UAE in supporting the slide toward dictatorship.

“When you look at media coverage of these issues, the Tunisian election, the Algerian election wasn’t covered at all on Western media, aside from probably Le Monde Diplomatique…” Deen said.

Across the border, Libya remains mired in chaos, with two rival governments and militia groups dividing control. Since Muammar Gaddafi’s ouster in 2011, Libyan society has seen little progress; GDP and living standards have returned to early 2011 levels, while healthcare and public infrastructure continue to deteriorate.

“Libya is an example of, once an uprising happened, people forgot about it and expected everything to go back to normal without building the institutions for government,” Deen said.

Outside players like Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, the UAE, and even France wield significant influence, backing opposing factions and leaving Libyans caught in a prolonged state of instability.

The outlook for North Africa and the broader region remains bleak. With neighbouring countries like Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia also grappling with violence, authoritarianism, or centralised power grabs, the region appears locked in a cycle of conflict and repression. Experts warn that the closure of democratic space leaves violent uprisings as the only alternative for change, heightening the potential for unrest across North Africa.

Analysts stress that without robust international accountability for external interventions in North Africa, the region is likely to remain unstable. The growing gap between those with rights and those without continues to widen, deepening democratic backsliding and compounding the region’s challenges.

Background and analysis

Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune was elected for a second time after winning 84,3 percent of the vote in the 7 September 2024 presidential election.

Tebboune’s opponents challenged the preliminary results which showed that Tebboune had received nearly 95 percent of the votes according to an Al Jazeera report.

Analysts say that Algeria has experienced a continual backsliding towards dictatorship. This has been aided by the international community, which provides protection for dictators and tolerates violations of human rights to fulfil the need for stability in the country.

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s authoritarian style of governance serves the interests of several Western powers by ensuring stability, predictability, and a degree of control in a region that is otherwise prone to turmoil.

Western powers, particularly France and the United States benefit from a centralised, authoritarian government in Algeria that can maintain control over supposed security efforts. A dictatorial government can more effectively impose heavy-handed security measures without facing strong domestic pushback, allowing Western nations to collaborate with Algeria on intelligence-sharing and border security operations.

Algeria’s significant natural gas reserves make it an attractive energy partner, especially for European Union (EU) countries like Italy and Spain that seek alternatives to Russian gas. A dictatorial government like Tebboune is able to maintain a stable supply, secure energy facilities, and quickly respond to Western demands for energy supplies without the complexities of a democratic process. This centralised control allows the West to negotiate favourable terms on energy exports, strengthening their own energy security with a predictable partner.

Dictatorial governments are often more effective at implementing strict border controls, which aligns with EU interests in curbing migration from North Africa. Tebboune’s regime can enforce border security and immigration restrictions without facing significant public opposition, helping Western nations to control migration from the country

Western companies, particularly in the energy, construction, and arms sectors, benefit from the predictability and access that comes with an authoritarian regime. Algeria’s leadership under Tebboune provides favourable conditions for Western investment, with fewer regulatory barriers, minimal risk of labour strikes or civil unrest, and government cooperation in securing profitable contracts.

Western powers also view an authoritarian Algeria as a counterweight to the influence of Russia and China in North Africa. With a regime that seeks Western alliances for stability, the West can indirectly limit Russian and Chinese involvement in the region, which could otherwise grow in a fragmented or democratised Algeria that might seek alternative allies.

Tebboune’s authoritarian approach ultimately provides a predictable ally, willing to prioritise security, energy partnerships, and immigration control that suit Western interests. For the West, this stability outweighs potential concerns about human rights abuses, as the arrangement bolsters their geopolitical and economic goals in the region.

The situation in Tunisia, where Kais Saied secured his second term with over 90% of votes, shares some similarities with Algeria regarding Western interests, but it differs due to Tunisia’s unique political and economic dynamics, historical background, and recent struggles with democracy.

Like Algeria, Tunisia is an important player in North African dynamics, and Western powers value its stability. However, Tunisia’s approach has historically leaned toward a more democratic system post-2011 Arab Spring. After President Kais Saied’s 2021 power grab and increasingly authoritarian policies, some Western countries are cautiously supportive because a stable, centralised regime can more directly target security threats.

Tunisia, like Algeria, is crucial in managing migration flows from North Africa into Europe. Under an authoritarian approach, like that of Saied’s, Tunisia is more willing to implement strict immigration policies and border controls, aligning with EU interests to reduce migrant arrivals. Italy and the EU have been particularly vocal in supporting stronger migration controls in Tunisia, often providing financial aid to help manage migration as Tunisia becomes a significant transit point for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa.

Unlike Algeria, Tunisia’s economy is more vulnerable and dependent on foreign aid, especially from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the EU, and other Western partners. This dependency gives Western nations greater leverage over Tunisian policy, especially in an authoritarian regime with fewer checks and balances. In return for financial assistance, Western powers can press Tunisia to implement specific economic reforms, enforce migration controls, or limit the influence of competing powers like Russia and China.

In Tunisia, Western powers thus benefit from a stable, centralised government for migration control, security cooperation, and investment protection. However, given Tunisia’s democratic history, Western countries face the challenge of balancing support for Saied’s authoritarian moves with their long-standing encouragement of democratic governance. Western powers tend to adopt a cautious, sometimes conditional, approach, pressuring Saied to maintain some democratic norms while tolerating authoritarian actions that enhance regional stability.

Listen to the Media Lens on Sabaahul Muslim with Mawlana Habib Bobat.