25 July 2025 | 12:03 CAT
3-minute read

Ceasefire flounders while Gaza crisis deepens

Efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza have once again stalled, as the latest round of negotiations between US, Israeli, and Qatari officials collapsed in Sardinia this week.

Middle East analyst and senior fellow James M. Dorsey warns that despite the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza, political will from key players remains absent.

Dorsey, speaking in his weekly analysis segment, The Middle East Report, said the anticipated breakthrough failed to materialise after US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff did not proceed to the Middle East, an expected signal of diplomatic progress.

“The indication of whether or not a breakthrough was possible was going to be whether Steve Witkoff, the US envoy, travels from Sardinia to the Middle East. He’s not doing so,” Dorsey said.

The negotiations, which included Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and a senior Qatari envoy, came after both Hamas and Israel reportedly made concessions.

Israel had agreed to withdraw from the Morag corridor—a move that would have hindered its controversial plan to create a tent city in Rafah for hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians.

However, Israel’s subsequent withdrawal from talks in both Doha and Cairo suggests the ceasefire process has ground to a halt.

The Israeli government and US officials now place the blame squarely on Hamas, a pattern Dorsey notes has become familiar in recent ceasefire failures.

The impasse comes amid deepening humanitarian devastation. Aid convoys remain limited, food is scarce, and the threat of mass displacement looms.

According to UN data, over 1,9 million Palestinians have been displaced since October 2023, and aid agencies warn of famine-level conditions in northern Gaza.

Dorsey pointed to a recent report by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America highlighting Israel’s reliance on US military hardware—specifically THAAD missile systems—during last month’s Israel-Iran conflict. The systems, manned by US personnel, intercepted nearly half of all Iranian missiles launched at Israel.

“That demonstrates just how dependent Israel is, and, in theory at least, the degree of leverage one would assume that the Americans have,” Dorsey observed.

The US provision of advanced missile defense system not only reveals Israel’s dependence, but also raises questions about Washington’s reluctance to exert greater pressure on Israel to stop the Gaza genocide.

Dorsey discussed shifting dynamics in Middle Eastern sport, observing a potential turning point in regional politics through football. Autocrats, once wary of the sport’s power to mobilise dissent—as seen in the Arab Spring—now appear to be embracing foreign investment into domestic leagues.

“Now with the need – particularly in the Gulf – to diversify economies to cater to the aspirations of a largely young population and to project themselves internationally they’re [autocrats are] moving towards investing significantly – countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Emirates – in soccer.”

Such moves, he explained, are part of a broader attempt to diversify Gulf economies, appeal to their youth populations, and boost global influence through sport. But this also reflects a new comfort level with relinquishing some control, signalling confidence in domestic stability.

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Watch the Middle East Report on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.