By Neelam Rahim

Last week rare protests in Uzbekistan’s autonomous Karakalpakstan region, which borders Kazakhstan in the country’s northwest and deadly. According to the government, eighteen people died, and 243 others were wounded due to clashes between security forces and protesters. More than 500 were detained.

The authorities did not reveal the identities of those killed but said they were civilians and law enforcement personnel among the dead. The unrest has broken out in response to proposed constitutional reforms, which would see the vast region lose its autonomy and right to succeed.

In discussion with Radio Islam International is Maximilian Hess,a London-based political risk analyst.

According to Hess, the unrest broke out when reports emerged that Karakalpakstan’s economy would be changed in the constitution. The real point of the constitutional change is to enable the president to get President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has been in power since 2016. 

He says there has been a slight independence movement in the region. Still, ethnic tensions have increased in recent years, partly because the Uzbekistan government has instituted a programme to subsidise ethnic Uzbek farmers to move to the region from other parts of the country.

Hess wrote in an Op-Ed that these protests and Karakalpakstan could have significant consequences for the whole of Central Asia.

Hess tells Radio Islam that he thinks it can have significant consequences for the whole world.

He says Uzbekistan has been undergoing localising agenda. It is central Asia’s breadbasket, and the country that can serve as its independence knows the region’s power and influence. It has almost more people than all of the other former Soviet Central Asian countries put together.

According to Hess, it certainly does fit the Russian playbook. And there have been many strange reports and claims online in Russia and statements from previously unheard-of groups asking President Vladimir Putin to intervene and ensure peace. We’ve seen this in the Russian playbook, including Ukraine, Georgia, and elsewhere.

For the full interview, listen to Radio Islam’s podcast below.