Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
20 September 2024 | 09:00 CAT
2 min read

A report from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) highlights renewed hope and optimism in South Africa following the establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU). The report, authored by Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, was launched in partnership with News24 and the Hanns Seidel Foundation. It emphasises that the GNU, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa and a coalition of seven political parties, has focused on inclusive growth and long-term economic recovery.

Speaking to Radio Islam, Cilliers explained that they use a forecasting platform developed and hosted at the University of Denver in the United States. This platform relies heavily on data and builds on previous research to predict South Africa’s business-as-usual development trajectory, based on historical growth rates and other factors. The model also explores various sectoral scenarios, such as improvements in governance, education, and eight key sectors, showcasing South Africa’s development potential. Similar models are created for every African country, and all their findings are publicly available on their website.

Dr. Cilliers predicts that by 2029, the GNU must demonstrate tangible improvements through structural reforms. The report stresses the importance of boosting government effectiveness, addressing key issues like electricity shortages, and preventing future water crises.

“Our current forecast will only recover to our 2013 levels in 2036 which is 23 years. Some reasons for that relate to the 2007 – 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, Jacob Zuma, state capture, poor policy, corruption, cadre deployment, etc.,” he said.

Cilliers underlined that the GNU’s success hinges on its commitment to a multiracial, inclusive vision and substantial economic reforms.

“The GNU brings a new hope to South Africa with regards to turnaround in specific ministries and in terms of greater activism, unlocking Transnet problems and so on. These very evidently provide an opportunity to focus on, for example, the export-led growth path, which is very important for South Africa. The scenario that has the largest potential is free trade into Africa through the continental free trade area, but governance is very important. The GNU seems to have inspired hope that we could really undertake structural inform that could unlock more and better inclusive group,” he said.

He highlighted that due to our proportional representation system, single-party dominance has come to an end, ushering in an era of coalitions. While there are current challenges in establishing stable coalitions in certain areas, progress is being made.

According to Cilliers, at the national level, they are already witnessing increased stability and forward momentum.

“We have to create a central political dispensation that takes South Africa forward. Neither of the parties are big enough on their own, we need to create a centrist party. I hope this will become an alliance that brings the urban black vote potentially, business and middle class together,” he said.

President Ramaphosa, in his recent newsletter, expressed confidence in the GNU’s progress, acknowledging challenges but stressing the coalition’s importance for the country’s future.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria, here.