Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read
17 January 2025

📸 Africa caught in the crosshairs of global conflicts and political upheaval.

The geopolitical tremors from renewed Middle East conflict and U.S. foreign policy are rippling across the African continent, raising the stakes for economies, diplomacy, and regional stability.

Donald Trump’s reintroduction of a travel ban on 19 countries, ten of which are African, has drawn sharp criticism. Dr. Sizo Nkala, Research Fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for African-China Studies, called the policy “racist and xenophobic,” arguing it scapegoats African nationals and strains already fragile U.S.-Africa relations.

“While African migrants represent only 5% of the U.S. migrant population, they constitute over half the nations affected,” Nkala pointed out. “This disproportionate targeting sends a negative signal for future relations should Trump win another term.”

Meanwhile, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have triggered a global economic ripple, with Africa directly in the crosshairs. Oil prices have surged by 7%, a development Nkala warns could hit African economies hard.

“African states are oil importers,” he noted. “This escalation could push inflation, disrupt supply chains, and force trade to reroute through the Cape of Good Hope, adding further cost pressure.”

South Africa, for example, has already seen its currency drop by 1.6% as investors pull away from emerging markets amidst the instability.

Beyond economics, the crisis also exposes political fault lines on the continent. “We’ll likely see a divide similar to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Nkala said. “Countries like Algeria and Burkina Faso may side with Iran, while Kenya and Zambia could lean toward Israel.”

Adding to regional instability, South Africa has begun withdrawing troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The SADC-led intervention against M23 rebels proved costly, with 14 South African soldiers losing their lives. Nkala says the withdrawal, prompted by public outcry, leaves the DRC government dangerously exposed as rebel violence continues.

The return of former DRC President Joseph Kabila may complicate matters. His apparent alignment with the rebels and influential legacy pose a direct challenge to President Félix Tshisekedi. “The government fears Kabila’s influence so much they’ve banned media coverage of him,” Nkala noted. “This could embolden M23 and shift their goal to toppling the current regime.”

While the DRC is seeking U.S. support in exchange for access to critical minerals, the outcome of those negotiations may determine whether the government can regain control of the eastern region. For now, Nkala warns, “M23 holds the upper hand.”

Listen to the Africa Report on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat and Dr. Sizo Nkala.