Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read

Uganda heads to the polls amid concerns over democratic space, as BRICS naval drills in South Africa and shifting battle lines in Sudan highlight Africa’s complex political and security landscape. 📷

As the African continent navigates a complex political and security landscape, key developments in Uganda, South Africa and Sudan underscore persistent challenges around democracy, geopolitics and humanitarian crises.

Uganda is set to hold its presidential and parliamentary elections on January 15, with familiar political dynamics once again dominating the contest. Incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, is facing opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, of the National Unity Platform. This marks the second electoral face-off between the two after the disputed 2021 elections, in which Museveni secured 58% of the vote to Bobi Wine’s 35%.

Research fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Africa–China Studies, Sizo Nkala, told Radio Islam International that the outcome appears largely predetermined. “Museveni’s grip on state institutions and the ruling National Resistance Movement machinery makes it almost certain that he will secure another term,” Nkala said. He added that while Bobi Wine enjoys strong support among urban youth, opposition activities are frequently curtailed, particularly in rural areas. “Under these conditions, this election is likely to be a repeat of 2021 another election without democracy,” Nkala noted, describing the continued harassment, intimidation and detention of opposition figures as “a sad story for democracy in Africa.”

Beyond the ballot, uncertainty looms over Uganda’s political future, with Museveni now 81 years old. Nkala believes the question of succession will increasingly dominate Ugandan politics in the coming years, as the ruling National Resistance Movement grapples with leadership continuity in a post-Museveni era.

Shifting focus to Southern Africa, South Africa has drawn international attention by hosting joint naval exercises involving BRICS-aligned countries, including China, Russia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The drills, taking place in Simon’s Town, involve maritime rescue operations, maritime strike simulations and technical exchanges with the South African National Defence Force.

Nkala says the exercises go beyond routine military cooperation. “This is a projection of power and a statement of readiness by BRICS countries to defend their core interests, particularly in light of the United States’ increasingly militarised foreign policy,” he said. The location is also significant, with the Cape Route serving as a major global shipping lane and an alternative to the volatile Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor, which has been disrupted by ongoing instability. “Once again, Africa is becoming a theatre of great power competition,” Nkala warned.

Meanwhile, in Sudan, there are tentative signs of a potential turning point in a civil war that has devastated the country for nearly three years. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has reportedly killed an estimated 150,000 people and triggered what the United Nations has described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

The Sudanese government recently announced it has re-established a presence in Khartoum after being forced to operate from Port Sudan since 2023. While the capital lies largely in ruins, with critical infrastructure destroyed and millions displaced, Nkala says the development could shift the balance of power. “This gives government forces a strategic advantage and may open space for more meaningful diplomatic negotiations,” he said, expressing cautious hope that renewed talks could lead to a ceasefire and eventual peace settlement.

As Africa enters 2025, these unfolding developments highlight enduring struggles for democratic accountability, sovereignty and peace issues that remain central to the continent’s future.

Listen to the full Africa Report on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Junaid Kharsany and Sizo Nkala.