Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za

3-minute read
18 July 2025 | 11:45 CAT

📸 Power games in KZN: Can Ramaphosa survive without Mchunu?

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to place Minister of Water and Sanitation, Senzo Mchunu, on a leave of absence rather than dismissing him outright has raised questions about internal ANC dynamics, especially in the volatile political terrain of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

In conversation with Dr Imraan Baccus on this week’s ASRI Report, the implications of the move were unpacked with critical focus on how this reflects broader ANC instability and potential strategic missteps.

“Ramaphosa is in a serious predicament,” Dr Baccus explains. “Senzo Mchunu isn’t just any minister; he backed Ramaphosa in 2017 and commands considerable influence in KZN, particularly in areas where he kept the IFP at bay.” Mchunu’s political clout in the region may be one of the few strongholds Ramaphosa can still rely on in a province widely seen as a Zuma-aligned stronghold.

The leave of absence, rather than outright dismissal, signals Ramaphosa’s cautious strategy. Dr Baccus points out that Mchunu, as a former police minister, “could have pursued Phala Phala allegations” against Ramaphosa, a potential threat the president may still be wary of. “There’s acknowledgment that both of them have their vulnerabilities,” Dr Baccus adds.

Removing Mchunu entirely, particularly ahead of elections, could “erode the ANC’s dominance significantly in KZN,” a province where loyalty and political patronage are in constant flux. As the ANC continues to lose support both nationally and provincially, Mchunu’s role becomes more critical.

Asked about Ramaphosa’s ability to act boldly, Dr Baccus was cautious: “This is Ramaphosa’s style. He walks the middle path, avoids ruffling feathers. He’s no Mbeki, who acted even when it was unpopular.”

The rise of the MK party, backed by former president Jacob Zuma, poses another challenge. While their messaging has lacked policy substance, “Zuma’s presence still holds gravitas,” says Dr Baccus. However, disillusionment is growing even among MK supporters, who “don’t see a tangible impact on their lives.”

As the ANC bleeds support, particularly at the local level where service delivery failures dominate public discourse, Dr Baccus warns: “Once liberation movements get pushed to the periphery, history teaches us they never recover.”

With upcoming local elections on the horizon, the ANC may face its greatest test yet, not just from the opposition, but from within its own fractured identity.

Listen to the ASRI Report on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat and Dr Imraan Baccus.