Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za

3-minute read
29 March 2025 | 06:45 CAT

South Africans brace for a tough winter ahead as Eskom’s grid instability triggers renewed load shedding concerns. Experts warn that power cuts may escalate in the coming months.

South Africans are once again grappling with the reality of unexpected power cuts after Eskom abruptly lost five generation units, triggering the fourth round of load shedding this year. With winter fast approaching, experts warn that the country’s energy supply remains precarious, leaving businesses, households, and essential services in a vulnerable position.

Speaking on Radio Islam International, power and energy expert Professor Vally Padayachee emphasized the fragility of Eskom’s generation capacity. “By Eskom’s own admission, their system is still tenuous. There are inherent risks, and despite 310 days without load shedding, we’ve had four stages of power cuts in just the last month. We could have even faced a fifth stage,” he cautioned.

The lack of prior warning before implementing load shedding has further fueled public frustration. Many businesses struggle to plan ahead, leading to significant economic disruptions. Padayachee explained that in recent incidents, Eskom did not have the luxury of providing sufficient notice. “Several coal-fired units failed unexpectedly, forcing Eskom to balance supply and demand almost instantaneously. This left no time for scheduled load shedding plans,” he said.

Adding to the crisis is Eskom’s dwindling energy availability factor, which currently sits at 60%. “For load shedding to cease, this needs to be between 70% and 75%,” Padayachee stated. Compounding the issue is the lack of a reserve margin, which means the grid is operating on a dangerously tight supply-demand balance.

While Eskom had made some progress in its generation recovery efforts, recent setbacks suggest the situation remains dire. The aging coal fleet, rapid unit breakdowns, and delays in introducing new energy sources are among the key challenges. “Maintenance is crucial, but if it is not done properly, we will continue seeing repeated failures,” warned Padayachee.

Looking ahead, the winter months pose an even greater risk. “From May to August, demand will surge, and unless significant changes occur, load shedding is inevitable. I expect we might see up to stage three, but nothing is guaranteed,” he cautioned.

Eskom is set to reveal its winter contingency plan on April 3, which will provide further insights into the expected energy outlook. However, for now, South Africans are urged to brace for a tough winter ahead.

Listen to the full interview on Your World Today with Annisa Essack and Vally Padayachee here.