24 July 2026 | 12:10 CAT
2-minute read

Saudi nuclear deal risks fuelling wider Middle East arms race 

A proposed civilian nuclear agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia could trigger a broader nuclear arms race in the Middle East, according to geopolitical analyst and Middle East scholar James Dorsey.

Speaking on Radio Islam International’s Middle East Report this week, Dorsey said the agreement had become increasingly uncertain after US President Donald Trump announced that the deal would only proceed if Saudi Arabia formally recognised Israel through the Abraham Accords. Riyadh has repeatedly maintained that it will not normalise relations with Israel without meaningful progress towards the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Dorsey argued that even if the agreement never comes into force, its implications are already being felt across the region.

“The agreement was likely to set off a regional nuclear arms race.”

He warned that allowing Saudi Arabia to pursue uranium enrichment could strengthen Iran’s determination to retain its own enrichment programme during negotiations with Washington. It could also encourage other regional powers, including Türkiye, to revisit their own nuclear ambitions while increasing pressure on Israel over its long-standing policy of nuclear ambiguity. Analysts have similarly cautioned that any perceived weakening of non-proliferation safeguards could encourage regional competition over nuclear capabilities.

The discussion also focused on growing instability in the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Houthi movement has intensified pressure on Saudi Arabia by targeting shipping linked to the Kingdom. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints, carrying a significant share of global trade and energy supplies.

Dorsey said the conflict in Yemen remains closely linked to wider tensions between Iran and the United States.

“The Iran and Yemen wars were always linked because of the Iranian support for Yemen’s rebels.”

He explained that while the Houthis and Iran do not necessarily share identical objectives, the Yemeni group has sought to capitalise on heightened regional tensions. According to Dorsey, renewed attacks on Saudi-linked shipping and threats to strategic waterways have complicated efforts to de-escalate the broader conflict.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has so far resisted retaliating militarily against the Houthis. Dorsey said Riyadh is attempting to avoid provoking attacks on critical oil infrastructure, including the East-West Pipeline and export facilities on the Red Sea, both of which are vital to maintaining oil exports should the Strait of Hormuz face further disruption.

He warned that any renewed military confrontation would likely deepen instability across the region and undermine efforts to contain the conflict.

Turning to the wider standoff between Washington and Tehran, Dorsey said both sides appeared trapped in a cycle of escalation despite neither seeking a full-scale war.

“The United States and Iran are caught in an escalation trap that threatens to spin out of control, with neither side willing to blink first.”

He said the continued reliance on military pressure had shown little evidence of changing Iran’s position, while Tehran has become increasingly entrenched in its negotiating stance. As diplomatic options narrow, the risk of miscalculation continues to grow, raising concerns that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and other strategic waterways could spill over into a broader regional confrontation.

Listen to the Middle East Report with James Dorsey on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Junaid Kharsany.