Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
29 November 2024 | 16:00 CAT
2 min read

Addressing recent tensions between Israel and Lebanon, with both sides trading accusations of ceasefire violations, Dr. James M. Dorsey, Award-winning scholar & journalist, cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions from the allegations, highlighting the complexity of the situation.

“Initial violations are often par for the course. Parties try to test their opponent and sees whether this will lead to a breakdown of the ceasefire, there is no indication of that at this point. The sustainability, ultimately of the ceasefire is going to be determined by the political will of the two parties, at this point, fact of the matter is that both Hezbollah and Israel are interested in maintaining the ceasefire,” he said.

Dorsey highlighted a critical concern, stating that if the ceasefire collapses and Israel is found responsible rather than Hezbollah, the pivotal question will be whether the United States will exercise its military and diplomatic influence to bring Israel back in line.

He noted that Hezbollah, despite its resilience, has already endured significant setbacks and is unlikely to have any interest in breaking the ceasefire at this stage.

“Obviously everyone is looking at whether the ceasefire in Lebanon can be replicated with a ceasefire in Gaza. On the day it was implemented, the Biden Administration said it was starting to work on a ceasefire with Gaza. Lost in that is one of the justifications that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu gave for accepting a ceasefire in Lebanon. He said it would free Israel to start focusing on Iran’s nuclear programme. That is in line with what Netanyahu expects is going to be the policy of the incoming Trump administration, namely a policy that primarily focuses in the Middle East on Iran and the nuclear programme,” he explained.

According to Dorsey, last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors convened and adopted a resolution urging the agency to deliver a comprehensive report on Iran. The resolution, driven by European members, was based on allegations that Iran has violated the 2015 nuclear agreement and may be advancing towards a military nuclear programme.

Dorsey said that in response to the resolution, Iran warned it would intensify uranium enrichment and expand its centrifuge capacity.

“Today is the day they are meeting to contain this spinning out of control,” he said. With the resolution now passed, efforts are underway to prevent the situation from spiralling further, as concerns grow that it could serve as a pretext for actions such as an Israeli military strike.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Habib Bobat and Dr James M. Dorsey, an Award-winning scholar & journalist, here.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist, scholar, and Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. He is the author of ‘The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer’.