Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
17 May 2024 | 13:30 CAT
3 min read

According to Dr. James M. Dorsey, US President Biden is engaging in high-risk diplomacy akin to a “game of poker” with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. While Biden’s approach may seem “velvet-gloved”, it’s essentially gambling with Israel’s political dynamics while keeping a keen eye on his own re-election prospects in the United States.

Despite escalating rhetoric and the suspension of an arms shipment to Israel, Biden is maintaining a close relationship with Israel, albeit with a strategic twist, rather than resorting to coercive measures that could compel Netanyahu to act differently.

“Biden is walking a tightrope with one eye on Israeli politics and his other eye on US Presidential elections in 6 months’ time. He is essentially trying to undermine Netanyahu; there is no love lost between the two men; and to keep pro-Israeli voices in the US,” said Dorsey.

Dorsey suggests that Biden is attempting to delicately balance his approach, taking measures against Israel but refraining from firmly asserting his stance. Instead, Biden is sending a strong message while simultaneously seeking to reassure pro-Israeli voices that he is not turning against Israel.

“Looking at opinion polls among diaspora Jews, Palestinian-Israelis’ or Turkish Kurds, what you see is that they may support national aspirations. But at the same time they remain loyal to the countries that they are citizens of. They are going to be supportive, but they aren’t migrating to Israel in great numbers; in fact, numbers are down worldwide. That is a major lesson to be learned as you look at Palestinian-Israeli co-existence, whether that be in a one-state or a two-state solution,” he said.

Saudi Arabia and the Middle East

Dorsey emphasises that the $500 billion rand Neom project, which is a significant component of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy aimed at diversifying the economy away from oil, is not merely a futuristic mega project but also intended to host major sporting events. However, the issuance of a “shoot to kill” order is likely to galvanise human rights activists.

He notes that initial resistance to Neom from tribes who faced land loss resulted in casualties at the hands of security forces. According to a whistleblower from the Saudi military, there are now explicit directives for armed forces to use lethal force against tribal opponents of Neom.

Discussing peace agreements with Houthi rebels, Dorsey emphasises the Saudis want to get out of the Yemen war. He pointed out that there has been a ceasefire more or less for quite some time now, and the Saudis and Houthis were negotiating an agreement that would allow the Saudi troops to withdraw from Yemen, but it was put on hold as a result of the Gaza war and, of course, things escalated with the Houthis attacking shipping in the Gulf.

Discussing peace negotiations with Houthi rebels, Dorsey underscores Saudi Arabia’s desire to extricate itself from the Yemen war. He highlights a prolonged ceasefire and ongoing negotiations between the Saudis and Houthis aimed at facilitating the withdrawal of Saudi troops from Yemen. However, progress on these talks was halted due to the war on Gaza and escalated tensions following Houthi attacks on shipping in the Gulf.

“The Saudis, now with US backing, are looking to renew those negotiations; the Houthis would benefit from that significantly in financial terms because they made a lot of financial demands that Saudi has in principle accepted, but it’s certain that the Saudis will also look for some guarantee in that agreement that shipping in the Gulf waters is safe,” he said.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and award-winning journalist and scholar, Dr James M. Dorsey, here.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist, scholar, and Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. He is the author of ‘The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer’.