27 June 2025 | 12:35 CAT
2-minute read

Iran has vowed to respond to any future US strikes by attacking American military bases in the Middle East, according to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an address on Thursday- his first televised remarks since a ceasefire was reached between Iran and Israel.

The 12-day war culminated in Iran’s attack on a US base in Qatar, which is the largest in the region, after the US joined Israeli strikes. US intelligence assessments indicate that America’s bunker-buster bomb and cruise missile strikes did not destroy the three Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday- despite Trump’s remarks that the attack “completely and fully obliterated” the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

Analysts have warned that although the ceasefire is still intact, it is extremely fragile, with hopes for longer-term peace resting on potential negotiations between the US and Iran next week.

“There may or may not be negotiations this week or talks this week between the United States and Iran, but nothing is going to get resolved and as a result you’ve got a very fragile ceasefire,” James Dorsey said in this week’s Middle East Report

Dorsey explained that even the term “ceasefire” remains contested. “There’s not even agreement on whether there is a ceasefire,” he said, noting that the pause in hostilities is more a mutual halt than a formal, negotiated truce.

The broader regional response to the strikes has been mixed. While Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have long viewed Iran’s nuclear ambitions with suspicion, their primary concerns have always centred on Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its support for non-state actors across the region. The destruction of nuclear sites, Dorsey said, does not address these deeper issues.

“The Saudis and the Gulf states… their primary concern was never the nuclear issue. Their primary concern was Iran’s ballistic missiles and its backing of non-state allies.”

Meanwhile, speculation is mounting over possible side deals that may have shaped the halt in hostilities. Reports suggest that Israel could have tacitly agreed to pause its offensive in Gaza as part of the broader regional manoeuvring, but there are no confirmed details. Israel’s refusal to immediately dispatch a hostage negotiation team to Cairo or Doha for indirect talks with Hamas has also raised questions about its true intentions regarding the remaining captives in Gaza.

For now, the situation hangs in a delicate balance, with no clear resolution in sight. The coming days are expected to test whether the ceasefire can hold or whether the region will once again slide into open conflict.

Listen to the Middle East Report with Moulana Junaid Kharsany on Sabaahul Muslim.