Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za

2-minute read
10 February 2024 | 10:01 CAT

ANC’s Popularity Plummets to 40%: Ipsos Poll Reflects Shifting Political Landscape in South Africa

The latest polls from research organisations IPSOS indicate that the ANC will not only see a drop to less than 40% but that the EFF and DA are neck-and-neck in the race to be the country’s official opposition. According to IPSOS, voter turnout will be an all-important and pivotal fact.

According to the Ipsos survey, ANC support is at 38.5%, DA 18.6%, EFF 17.3%, IFP 3.6%, Action SA 3.4%, ACDP 0.9%, FF+ 0.8% and other parties 6.8%.

About 3.6% of surveyed people said they would not vote; 3.8% refused to answer; 2.7% said they were uncertain.

Ipsos also noted that a lower voter turnout could benefit the ANC, increasing its support to 50%. “This scenario relies on variable voter turnout across metropolitan and rural areas. A higher turnout in rural areas would favour the ANC, given its predominantly rural support base,” the study read.

Radio Islam International underscores the research with Political Analyst Marri Harris.

“If the voter turnout is on the high side, ANC will do a little better than 40/ but, if the turnout is very low the ANC will do better and get a bigger portion of the vote share. This is because the ANC has a lot of votes coming from the rural areas,” says Harris.

When Ipsos “reworked” the numbers, and included those who said they would not vote, did not know, or refused to answer, the ANC polled 40.5% of support, the DA 20.5% and the EFF 19.6%.

“The pivotal factor in this election hinges on voter turnout on the election day. Several analyses indicate that anticipating a high voter turnout may not be realistic, largely attributed to widespread despondency regarding the country’s situation and low levels of trust in politicians and political parties,” Ipsos states.

Ipsos conducted face-to-face interviews with 3,600 people from 23 October 2023 to 1 December 2023.

Listen to the full interview on The Daily Round-Up with Moulana Ibrahim Daya.