By Neelam Rahim

South Africa’s future hangs in the balance because of a vacuum of ethical and courageous leadership, coupled with astounded GDP growth, political uncertainty and fragile social cohesion.

The Institute for Risk Management South Africa’s 2022 Risk Report highlight several pitfalls in the country and informing there are three possible scenarios likely to play out in the coming years.

Radio Islam International discusses with SA Risk Report Project Leader Michael Davies.

According to Michael, Risk Management South Africa produces these reports annually, which is the product of The Risk Intelligence Committee within the centre. Their duties include collaborating with industry leaders and subject matter experts, conducting national surveys, and releasing the Report.

He says the Report highlights nine key risks to South Africa achieving its eventual National Development Plan vision 2030 and the accelerated plan. 

In no particular order, the risks include the first one that South Africa becomes a failed state. The second risk would be the complete breakdown of ethical and legal principles across society and, very much highlighted in the Zondo State Commission Report, particularly on the State Capture, this risk is highly likely to materialise if not already. The third risk is the unmanageable societal unrest and the breakdown of the rural law, as we have seen in the July unrest, a considerable risk for South Africa. 

The fourth risk considered by Risk Management would be the complete economic collapse. Michael further tells Radio Islam that these risks are interrelated and interdependent. 

Another critical risk faced in South Africa is a lack of skills to enable economic growth and recovery. He said an additional risk would be the large-scale obstruction of economic activity relying on the stable supply of utilities.

Michael mentions a risk highlighted at the moment was the continual load shedding from Eskom and the unpredictability of which stage it will be on. The seventh risk highlighted was the large-scale interruption of digitally enabled services on economic activity. 

The eighth risk includes the debilitating loss of trade benefits through SA ports into Africa. The last critical risk highlighted was the inadequate response to current and future climate change impacts.