Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read

Experts warn that underfunding and non-operational equipment have left the SANDF unable to defend the country against major threats. 📷

Military analysts have raised serious concerns about the state of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), warning that the country is effectively unable to defend itself against a potential attack by a major military power.

While there is no immediate threat of an external assault, experts say the situation remains deeply worrying, particularly given the deteriorating condition of military equipment and persistent funding constraints.

Speaking to Radio Islam International, Military Analyst Helmoed Heitman said South Africa has never realistically been able to defend itself against global powers such as the United States, China, India or Russia. However, he stressed that this does not mean the country should be left defenceless.

“South Africa could never have defended itself against a major power,” Heitman said. “The most we could ever do was make the cost of attacking us higher than it was worth.”

He explained that historically, the country’s military capabilities were structured around deterrence rather than outright defence. Submarines, in particular, played a crucial role in raising the potential cost of any hostile action.

“That was, in a sense, the role of the submarines,” Heitman said, adding that their presence once limited foreign involvement in the region. “Not because they could not be defeated, but because it would have cost too much.”

Heitman noted that a properly funded, medium-sized defence force could still serve South Africa well by deterring smaller powers and assisting neighbouring countries under threat. However, he emphasised that sustained investment is essential.

Comparatively, South Africa still ranks relatively well against other militaries south of the equator, but this advantage is undermined by the poor state of its equipment. “We’ve got good people in the defence force,” he said. “But without the equipment, they can’t do much. And without equipment, it’s very difficult to train to a proper standard.”

He warned that regional instability could quickly expose these weaknesses. Should insurgency in Mozambique spread southwards, South Africa would struggle to protect strategic interests such as power stations, gas fields and trade routes through the Mozambique Channel.

South Africa’s modest submarine fleet, Heitman said, also remains severely underutilised. With only one submarine partially operational, the country lacks a key strategic surveillance tool. “Even two operational submarines would make a big power think twice,” he said, noting their value in intelligence gathering and regional monitoring.

Despite heightened global tensions and recent developments in Venezuela, Heitman believes South Africa is unlikely to face sudden external attacks. “We’re simply not important enough strategically,” he said, explaining that Venezuela’s situation is driven by oil and geopolitical interests that do not apply to South Africa.

Nevertheless, experts caution that without urgent intervention and adequate funding, South Africa’s defence capabilities will continue to decline, leaving the country increasingly exposed in an uncertain global environment.

Listen to the full interview on The Daily Round-Up with Moulana Ibrahim Daya and Helmoad Heitman.