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New survey predicts shifts in political landscape ahead of general election

Azra Hoosen |
12 March 2024 | 15:30 CAT
2 min read

A new survey conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation has revealed significant shifts in the political landscape ahead of the upcoming general election. According to the Daily Maverick, the survey suggests that two parties are poised to make significant gains in key provinces.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is anticipated to strengthen its position in Gauteng, with support rising to 27% from 23% in October. This projection positions the DA as a formidable contender in the province.

Jacob Zuma’s newly formed Umkhonto Wesizwe party, commonly known as MK, is expected to emerge as a dominant force in KwaZulu-Natal. The survey indicates that MK has garnered 13% of the vote, making it the third-largest party in the region.

Meanwhile, the African National Congress (ANC) faces a decline in support, with figures dropping to 39%. This decrease heightens the possibility of a coalition government following the general election on May 29th.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), previously a significant player in the political arena, has experienced a decline in support, plummeting from 17% in October to just 10% in the latest survey.

These findings signal a potential shift in the balance of power within South African politics, with the DA and MK poised for prominent roles in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, respectively.

During an interview with Radio Islam, political analyst Dirk Kotze highlighted that the information being discussed was an opinion poll. “The sample is small, and many people were secluded from it. We can follow trends, but it is risky to reach firm conclusions at this point. Many things can happen in the next two months,” he said.

Kotzw pointed out that coalition governments are well-established in many parts of the world but represent a relatively new form of governance for South Africa. He believes that our knowledge and local experience can reassure us about navigating potential challenges if coalitions are formed at the national or provincial levels.

Kotzw believes the MK party will be a small party in the rest of the country. “The big challenge will be when Zuma is no longer there because he has become almost a cult figure in the context of the MK party, and without him, there will not be much left,” he said.

He underscored that breaches have taken place in the past, and the DA has vocalized concerns about the significant issue of cybersecurity. According to Kotzw, the recent leaks serve as an additional wake-up call to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), urging them to prioritize and bolster security measures.

LISTEN to the full interview with Muallimah Annisa Essack and political analyst Dirk Kotze, here.


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