Rabia Mayet | rabiamayet@radioislam.co.za

12 October 2026

2-minute read

What happens when no single party wins enough votes to govern on its own?

The MISTRA Coalitions Barometer 2026 assesses the coalition governments over the past four years, and its findings challenge the idea that coalitions are usually unstable. Dr Laurence Caromba, researcher at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection says that the findings of the Barometer indicate:

• How widespread coalition politics is becoming – roughly a third of SA municipalities are made up of coalitions and 3 provinces are run by coalitions.
• The stability of coalition politics with 2/3^rds of coalitions surviving the past 4 years “without the largest party ever losing power”.
• The predictability of coalition governments – the accuracy of which one will last in the long term.

Dr Laurence mentions that coalition politics in KZN is “much more widespread than in the rest of the country,” with half of all municipalities being governed by minority coalitions. He goes on to say that it is likely that the province will become even “more fragmented” with the local government elections.

However, the bigger municipalities and metros are more complex and unstable because of:

• Voting patterns,
• Structurally unstable governments that are attempted, and
• Incentives for fierce competition for parties to elevate to a national level.

Dr Laurence does put in a disclaimer and a word of caution that while the report studies trends of coalitions that have been formed over the past 4 years, it does not forecast the future, nor is it engaging in political polling. He states that there is “tremendous dissatisfaction on many issues” that are driving the key issue of political fragmentation. From the “perspective of electoral arithmetic,” there is a tendency for the formation of breakaway parties. More parties mean more composition of councils, more complex coalitions and more veto players. It also indicates that each individual minority party within the coalition has a lot of power and if each voice is not kept happy, political instability will result.

In short, Dr Laurence reiterates that their research does indicate that “coalitions are more stable than was thought,” and that political instability is less of a problem than it was previously thought to be. He adds that there while there are still many problems with the way municipalities are run, especially in terms of service delivery, if political parties cooperate with each other more transparently, it will result in a positive outcome.

Listen to teh full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Dr Laurence Caromba here.