20 October 2025 | 14:45 CAT
2-minute read

Business, Not Branches, Set to Call the Shots in ANC Leadership Contest

In this week’s Debrief Report, award-winning journalist Qaanitah Hunter laid bare a shifting reality behind the leadership succession of the African National Congress (ANC) and the presidency of South Africa: it may no longer be driven by party branches, but by business interests and financial clout. She anchored her analysis in the resurgence of speculation over mining billionaire Patrice Motsepe’s possible run for the presidency—a scenario he claims to dismiss, yet one that she argues cannot simply be wished away.

Hunter noted that Motsepe’s own protestations of political disinterest cannot be taken at face-value given historical precedent and the structural makeup of the ANC today.

“Just because he says he doesn’t want to be president, doesn’t mean he won’t be president, doesn’t work like that,” she said, pointing to the 2017 campaign of current president Cyril Ramaphosa where playacted reluctance masked strategic positioning.

Hunter further argued that the ANC has become vulnerable to the influence of external actors, observing that genuine grassroots constituencies within the party have been hollowed out by money-fuelled networks.

“What we know and what has been confirmed is that there’s no such thing as a genuine ground constituency in the ANC,” she declared, referencing internal probe findings and reports on factional funding.

Drawing on research on intra-party factionalism and elite capture in South Africa, Hunter contextualised how business and politics now intertwine. Crosstalk between corporate elites and party leadership has deep roots: one analysis shows how business-political coalitions helped anchor the ANC’s domination post-1994, but also seeded dependency on private capital.

In 2025, observers flagged the growing role of business, not branches, in deciding succession.

Nevertheless, Motsepe’s own position remains publicly consistent. He addressed the speculation at a media forum, declaring he was “not mad” about taking the top job, and pivoted the conversation to philanthropy and staying out of direct politics. Yet Hunter insists this does not shut the door: for ambitious business-political players, saying “no” may be part of the strategy.

“Politics is dictated to by business,” she reflected, pointing to the ANC’s GNU era alliances and the party’s erosion of mass-organisation legitimacy.

The broader context reveals a party under strain: acute factionalism, waning voter loyalty and declining performance in national polls. In this climate, an outsider with deep business roots has a certain allure: someone who appears disinterested in power, yet backed by those who know how to deliver it.

Hunter concluded that the 2025 NGC (National General Council) event and subsequent 2027 elective conference of the ANC will not simply showcase party campaigning, but expose the loci of power behind the scenes.

As the party gears up for a complex succession race, the question now is whether money-fuelled gatekeepers of politics will outweigh the traditional base of the ANC—and whether the country will witness a business magnate donning the mantle of president regardless of declared unwillingness from the candidate himself.

Listen to the Debrief Report on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.