Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za 
21 October 2026 | 12:44 CAT
3-minute read

“Election polls are not election results”: Qaanitah Hunter

Political polls provide insights into the preferences and beliefs of voters in a specific country, state, or district at a particular point in time. Polling results can inform policy, track the likely outcomes of elections, and help candidates and government officials decide where to invest time, campaign funds and other resources.

As South Africa approaches the 4 November local government elections, polling has become highly prominent. Polling data from different institutions including Ipsos, The Common Sense, the Social Research Foundation and eNCA, show variations in national support, but they consistently indicate a highly competitive landscape.

The media play a critical role in the democratic process, including reporting on political polls. However, South African legacy and digital media face criticism regarding how they report on the numbers.

During this week’s Debrief Report, Qaanitah Hunter discussed 3 key reporting errors regarding election polls. The first is that publications often report polls as fact and the second is that media publications are frequently biased in reporting political polls, particularly regarding who funds, sponsors, or conducts the survey. The third point Hunter made was that many critics, researchers and political analysts view election poll numbers in the media as highly unreliable and misleading.

While news outlets often cover the most dramatic or unexpected poll results – which distorts the public’s perception of the actual race – polls do provide a “snapshot of what people think at the current moment in time in terms of their political views,” according to Hunter. Additionally, Hunter explains that formal election polls are comprehensive, meaning that their results can sometimes be accurately generalised to the wider public.

The accuracy of a political poll depends primarily on how well the sampled group reflects the target population and how neutrally the data is gathered and analysed. Several critical factors determine whether a poll will closely match actual election outcomes or public sentiment, and it is best to keep in mind that the even the best polls are subject to error. Credible polls report both their margin of error and sampling methods.

Hunter noted that while the actual election remains the most accurate ‘poll’, many stakeholders, including political parties, candidates, the media, election management bodies and voters rely heavily on election polls to guide their decisions and actions.

“The best poll is an election, where there’s no margin of error. A hundred percent of a sample, which is the electorate, gets surveyed, or the people that show up, and then there’s an outcome to say, South Africans 40, whatever percent support the ANC 30% support the DA. And so that has no margin of error,” Hunter said.

The stakes are particularly significant in South Africa’s eight metropolitan municipalities, where fragmented political support can complicate the formation of municipal governments.

South Africa’s political arena has evolved from single-party dominance to a more fragmented landscape, which means that even a party polling a small share of the vote could influence the formation of a municipal government.

“Tiny percentage points can determine governance structures in municipalities as a result of correlations,” Hunter noted.

Hunter stressed that political information should help the public make informed decisions rather than discourage participation or overwhelm people with constantly changing figures and technical explanations.

“Information must empower. It must not overwhelm,” she said.

She also called for political reporting to become more accessible to ordinary South Africans, many of whom are already dealing with the pressures of daily life and the rising cost of living.

While election polls attract considerable attention, Hunter argued that the broader challenge is ensuring that people understand the information presented to them, including political party manifestos and other electoral data.

Simplifying political reporting without stripping away important context, she suggested, could help voters better understand the issues shaping the country’s democratic process.

Ultimately, polls should be treated as one source of information rather than a definitive account of what lies ahead.

Hunter urged South Africans to look beyond the headlines, understand the limitations of polling data and remain engaged in the electoral process.

The final outcome, she emphasised, will be determined by the votes cast — not by the numbers published before election day.

Listen to the Debrief Report with Qaanitah Hunter on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.