FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
3 December 2024 | 16:00 CAT
3 min read

The Syrian conflict continues to evolve, with recent rebel advances in Aleppo shedding new light on the region’s fragile balance. As the humanitarian crisis deepens, questions arise about the conflict’s far-reaching implications—both within Syria and across the globe. Andy Vermaut, a distinguished Belgian human rights journalist and geopolitical commentator, unpacks these complexities in an interview with Radio Islam.

He explained that in recent months, opposition forces have made significant territorial gains, seizing key locations and intensifying their challenge to the government. These advances highlight a resurgence in their coordination and capabilities. Contributing factors include improved communication among rebel groups, access to more advanced weaponry, and growing local support fueled by disillusionment with the government’s tactics.

He suggests the rebels’ recent successes demonstrate that they remain a formidable force, capable of launching effective offensives despite past setbacks. This shift in battlefield dynamics underscores the protracted nature of the conflict and highlights the significant challenges the government faces in securing a decisive victory.

He expressed his opinion that the recent rebel advances were the result of extensive preparation by opposition forces. He also highlighted a major issue in the Syrian government’s strategy—the tendency to categorise all opposition forces under the same umbrella of terrorism. “Regardless of their actual affiliations or objectives. There are countries who have rebel groups who do have affiliations with certain countries but by saying that everyone and putting them under the same umbrella all opposition groups, I think is too far,” he said.

He believes that Bashar al-Assad’s approach focuses on targeting anyone with opposing views as part of his broader strategy to reassert control over the country. “Assad’s strategy can consolidate power in some regions but it leads always to a lot of significant civilian casualties and a lot of widespread destruction by categorising all the opposition so in my opinion we need a more federal Syria where all people are included in the governments. A federal system, this would be much better in place of this long staying attacks on each other. It’s a big problem that persists,” said Vermaut.

He asserts that the humanitarian crisis is massive. “I am a bit mixed about what is happening there and now what we have to do as society is to put much more international influence to address all humanitarian needs and we have,” he said.

Vermaut highlighted that airstrikes and intensified military operations continue to devastate civilians, causing a sharp rise in casualties. Relentless bombardments have forced thousands to flee their homes, resulting in a surge of internal displacement. Additionally, these conditions have led to an increase in refugee flows into neighbouring countries, further exacerbating the regional humanitarian crisis. “It’s always the people who are victims of these kinds of conflicts,” he added.

According to Vermaut, there has been a significant shift in regional politics. Initially ostracized due to his government’s harsh crackdown on dissent, Assad has gradually been reintegrated into the regional fold. Many regional leaders now emphasize the importance of stability and are willing to engage with his regime, seeking a pragmatic approach to address shared concerns in the region.

“We are seeing now the Syrian conflict has far reaching implications for the balance of power in the Middle East,” he said.

He noted that Russia’s involvement has significantly solidified Assad’s presence in the region, allowing him to project more power and influence. With Russia’s support, along with backing from Iran, Assad is much stronger. He added that making predictions in this complex situation is challenging, as the conflict has drawn in various international actors, each with their own interests and agendas. “Everybody seeks to advance their interests. The outcomes will shape the regional alliances and influence future geopolitical alignments, the stakes are high, and the resolution will have lasting effects on the Middle Eastern politics and far beyond,” he said.

Vermaut asserts that the international community must take immediate action to protect the people who are the victims of this ongoing conflict.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Andy Vermaut, Belgian human rights journalist and geopolitical commentator, here.