12 December 2024 | 13:39 CAT
2-minute read

With Bashar al-Assad’s sudden departure to Moscow, questions about Russia’s motivations for offering asylum have surfaced. As Assad’s regime crumbles, Russia’s calculated move hints at its broader geopolitical ambitions.

Professor Alica Kizekova, Lecturer in Strategic and Security Studies at Curtin University in Perth discussed the implications of this decision and its potential effects on Syria’s future during an interview on Radio Islam International.

According to Professor Kizekova, Russia’s alliance with Syria has historically benefited Moscow in its geopolitical pursuits. “We shouldn’t see this as an isolated case,” she explained, referencing Syria’s support for Russia in conflicts such as Georgia and Ukraine. Syria recognised contentious territories like Crimea as Russian and maintained diplomatic ties with separatist regions such as Abkhazia.

Beyond political backing, Assad’s regime has provided Russia with strategic military advantages. “Russia received military bases, a naval base, and an air base in Syria,” Professor Kizekova said. These assets have bolstered Russia’s regional power and projection capabilities, making Assad’s asylum part of a broader strategy rather than a mere act of refuge.

The professor also highlighted the precarious position Russia finds itself in as it navigates alliances with Syria’s opposition groups. While Russia supported Assad’s rule, opposition factions favoured Georgia’s territorial integrity, creating a potential clash of interests. “This is very tricky…the opposition parties actually supported Georgia’s integrity,” she noted. Such complexities could test Russia’s ability to adapt to Syria’s changing political landscape.

On the global stage, the United States is poised to leverage Russia’s diminished role in Syria. With Assad’s departure, the US could solidify its influence in the region. “This is a very good case for the United States…it helps them a lot,” Professor Kizekova remarked, emphasising the strategic vacuum Assad’s absence creates.

As Syria transitions to a new government, international recognition will become a key challenge. Despite Russia’s weakened standing, its veto power in the United Nations Security Council ensures it remains a crucial player. For Syria’s incoming leaders, balancing ties with Moscow, Washington, and regional neighbours will likely define the nation’s trajectory in the post-Assad era.

Professor Kizekova concluded on a hopeful yet cautious note: “I hope the new established leadership will stabilise and will try to actually work with the other neighbours.” Whether Syria can overcome internal and external challenges to achieve stability remains to be seen.

Listen to the full interview produced by Annisa Essack for Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.