28 October 2025 | 07:52 CAT
3-minute read

Picture: News24 Morapedi Mashashe/Gallo Images/Daily Sun

As the African National Congress (ANC) in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) rushes to hold its regional and provincial elective conferences before November, concerns are mounting that the move could worsen the party’s internal fractures ahead of the 2026 local government elections. Analysts warn that the urgency—seen by some insiders as “rushed and risky”—could further destabilise a province already marked by factionalism, political killings, and declining voter trust.

Earlier this year, the ANC disbanded both its provincial and regional executive committees following its worst electoral showing in KZN since 1994. The national leadership has now instructed all 11 regions to elect new leadership ahead of the party’s National General Council in December—a timeline many view as politically dangerous.

Political analyst and senior lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Zakhele Ndlovu, said the decision showed poor judgment on the part of the ANC leadership.

“I don’t think that it was a wise move on the part of the ANC leadership to make regions go into elective conferences at such short notice and also just in less than a year before the local government elections,” he told Radio Islam International.

The ANC’s electoral dominance in KwaZulu-Natal has been steadily eroded over the past decade. The 2024 national election saw the emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, which captured a significant share of the provincial vote—cutting deeply into the ANC’s traditional base. Analysts suggest that internal instability could push even more members and voters toward the MK party in the coming local elections.

Ndlovu warned that the ANC’s weakened provincial structures and declining credibility could accelerate this shift.

“Especially now with the existence of the MK party, we could see more divisions from people joining the MK party because at this point in time, it looks like the MK party stands a better chance of winning in the local government elections,” he explained.

The stakes are high. KZN has long been one of South Africa’s most politically volatile provinces, with intra-party competition often turning deadly. The province has recorded one of the highest numbers of politically motivated killings in the country, according to research by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Many of these killings are linked to struggles over political positions and access to state resources.

Beyond internal divisions, the ANC faces an electorate that increasingly perceives the party as out of touch with the realities of ordinary citizens. Unemployment, service delivery failures, and persistent inequality have eroded public confidence—particularly among younger and urban voters.

Ndlovu said this growing disconnect has been years in the making.

“The ANC has been out of touch. Starting with President Thabo Mbeki during his tenure, it appeared that the leadership of the ANC is losing touch, becoming more aloof. Because they did so well during the first three decades after apartheid, it made the leadership more arrogant and complacent, thinking that the voters are going to keep the ANC in power,” he said.

He added that worsening poverty and a growing dependence on social grants are signs of disillusionment among South Africans who feel the promises of democracy have not translated into material progress.

If the ANC’s provincial conference triggers further internal ruptures, analysts warn the party could face an unprecedented electoral decline in KZN next year.

“It should result in the ANC losing more electoral support in next year’s local government elections and the party is going to become increasingly irrelevant. There’s a realisation on the part of some ANC leaders that the time of the ANC as the party of the masses is running out fast,” Ndlovu said.

Listen to the full interview on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Ibrahim Daya.