Azra Hoosen | ah@radioislam.co.za
7 December 2024 | 08:30 CAT
3 min read

A week into a rebel offensive, Syria finds itself at the center of a potential geopolitical realignment in the Middle East, with President Bashar al-Assad playing a pivotal role. Dr. James M. Dorsey warned that the window for this “tectonic shift” is narrowing rapidly, particularly as rebel forces make significant advances.

“The United States, the United Emirates, and Israel in the background have been dangling a carrot in front of Syrian president Bashar al Assad. And the carrot is we, the United States, will lift your crippling sanctions on Syria if you, Bashar al Assad, break with Iran, stop the transport of arms and funds via Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon and reintegrate with and introduce political reforms,” he said.

Dorsey suggests that such a development would dramatically reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape and deal a significant blow to Iran’s forward defence strategy. “But time is running out. The US Congress has to renew the sanctions on December 20. So, in other words, this is a deal that would have to be concluded within the next two weeks,” he said.

Assad’s alliance with Iran brings renewed focus on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strategic intentions. Key questions emerge: does Erdogan aim to confine the rebels’ efforts to northern Syria, or is he setting his sights on Damascus? Dorsey believes that the rebel groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Syrian National Army, and others, are largely backed by Turkey. At the very least, Turkey seeks a reordering of western Syria and a deeper pushback of Kurdish forces from its border—a goal already advancing through the current offensive.

“But, ideally, it would like to see a, friendly Islamist regime in Damascus. The rebels certainly want to push for Damascus. Turkey needs to know that or to what degree that would upset the apple cart in Tehran, in Russia, the two backers of Bashar al Assad, but also in Washington as a new administration comes to office in January. A victory by the rebels may very well suit the Trump administration in its focus on Iran and isolating Iran, and of course, Trump’s desire in the past to withdraw US troops from Northern Syria,” he said.

Similarly, in Lebanon, Gulf states view Hezbollah’s military setbacks and post-war vulnerabilities as a chance to weaken the group’s influence and, by extension, Iran’s foothold in the country.

Dorsey highlighted that Lebanon, already teetering on the brink of financial collapse for years, is now witnessing dynamics akin to those unfolding in Syria, with external actors seizing opportunities to shift the balance of power. “It is going to desperately need support, financial support to reconstruct from the damage that has been caused by the Israeli offensive in recent months. The Gulf States have made it clear that the funding would have to come from the Gulf States. And the Gulf States have made clear that they’re not going to put money into a black hole. In other words, into a situation that’s ultimately going to repeat itself,” he said.

He stated that the Gulf States are pushing for political reform in Lebanon, aiming to disarm Hezbollah as a military force while allowing it to remain a political player. The future hinges on the development of the ceasefire and whether Lebanon can take the necessary steps to secure the financial support it desperately needs.

Much of this geopolitical reshuffling could gain momentum with Donald Trump’s presidency, particularly with Tulsi Gabbard, a pro-Syrian politician, as his nominee for Director of National Intelligence.

Dorsey remarked that this situation presents a complex dynamic: “On the one hand, the rebels are making progress. Their progress could benefit Donald Trump. Yet his nominee for director of National Intelligence, Gabbard, is a politician who zigzags but nonetheless has been quite consistent in recent years in her empathy for Syria and for Syrian president Bashar al Assad,” he said.

In 2017, Tulsi Gabbard met with Bashar al-Assad, a move that Dr. James M. Dorsey described as highly controversial at the time. “She has downplayed the reports on atrocities that the Syrian military committed during now 14 years of civil war. So we’ll have to see how that plays out within the administration and to what degree she can influence Syria policy,” he concluded.

LISTEN to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Dr James M. Dorsey, an Award-winning scholar & journalist, here.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist, scholar, and Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. He is the author of ‘The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer’.