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The ASRI Report

Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
29 September 2023 | 14:38 SAST
1-min read

Ebrahim Fakir, director of programs at ASRI (Auwal Socio-economic Research Institute), discussed the implications of ANC’s loss of two safe seats during the latest round of by-elections during the ASRI Report on Radio Islam International.

During the interview, Fakir highlighted the differences between local government and national elections. He emphasised that comparing by-election results, which are limited to specific wards, to the broader national landscape can be problematic. The local government election system involves mixed voting, including both party lists and individual candidates, whereas national elections are strictly based on party lists. Additionally, voter turnout tends to be lower in local government elections, further complicating the comparisons.

Fakir cautioned against drawing sweeping conclusions from the by-election results, cautioning that assumptions about the ANC’s national decline might be premature. He pointed out that these local contests are not necessarily indicative of broader trends, as the systems and contexts differ significantly.

Regarding the likelihood of coalition politics in the upcoming general elections, Fakir acknowledged that coalitions have become a reality in South African politics, especially at the local level. However, he noted that predicting the outcome of national elections, particularly in terms of party majorities, remains uncertain. Opinion polls, while useful for strategic campaign planning, do not provide definitive forecasts, and the ANC’s past electoral losses are not always indicative of future results.

Fakir also discussed the recent rehabilitation and revisionism of historical figures within the political landscape, based on the example of Mangosuthu Buthelezi. He argued that such actions are often driven by political expedience rather than genuine reconciliation or adherence to principles. He expressed concern about the erosion of trust in politics when parties engage in large-scale revisionism of historical facts, highlighting the importance of fidelity to truth and values in the political sphere.

The interview indicates that while the ANC’s losses in by-elections have garnered significant attention, direct parallels to the national political landscape cannot be so hastily drawn.

Listen to the ASRI Report on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.

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