Rabia Mayet | rabiamayet@radioislam.co.za

10 December 2024

4-minute read

The unimaginable torture endured by the people of Syria to keep one person in power is heartbreaking, bringing back memories of past genocides. After 13 years of war with 14 million people displaced and the largest migration crisis that has ever happened, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham’s swift descension from Idlib into Hama, Aleppo and Damascus may have “seemed swift” but was many years in the making.

According to Zeenat Adam, former diplomat and independent international relations strategist, Syrians are still coming to terms with the events that have been unfolding the past few days, with the focus being the release of prisoners from the Sednaya concentration camp and the “discovery of the horrors” that were inflicted on its prisoners.

From a geopolitical perspective, Israel is now taking advantage of the situation with plans to redraw the map of the Middle East. While Israel fears this unknown entity taking over Syria, they have taken this as an opportunity to attack more than 300 targets, annexing twice as much land as Gaza, and even taking over Mt Hermond. The movements that have taken over Damascus are in discussion with the former Prime Minister, but they do not have the capacity nor the capability to respond to Israel’s incursions.

The immediate implications of the Assad regime for Syria and its people is a complicated issue. Post the Arab uprising and the Arab spring in 2011, several breakaway groups from the Assad army were formed, and militia with Islamic ideologies came to the fore. From 2017, there was a concerted effort amongst the rebel groups to come together with a common goal to create a change in Syria. Recent occurrences leading to a conglomeration of these groups with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) at the helm indicates a “positive move in a positive direction,” says Zeenat.

Jolani’s discussions with the PM to maintain government structures within Damascus are critical. Turkey’s role in supporting this movement became obvious 4 months ago when all parties, including Bashar Al-Assad, gathered with an indication that “something big” was about to happen. The Iranians and the Russians approached Assad separately, indicating that “things were changing” on the ground in Syria, but he refused to believe them and declined their assistance. The recent turn of events has led to both the Russians and the Iranians showing willingness to engage with the new leadership in the country, while Russia gives asylum to Assad. Hezbollah have also expressed a willingness to engage with the new leadership.

A third of Syrian land where oil and gas reserves are located is occupied by America, a fact that is “paralyzing the Syrian economy”. The “critical dynamic” in North-Eastern Syria is because of the USA’s support of the Kurds who are at war with Turkey.

Until sanctions against Syria are lifted, it will be difficult for the country to uplift its economy. Highly educated Syrian refugees have coordinated themselves into “almost interim governments outside of Syria” who will be able to come back into Syria and take up the relevant positions in government.

As for the remnants of the Assad regime, there are indications that Bashar Al-Assad will lead a “simple life” in Russia with tacit approval that he will “relinquish his leadership” and “not reclaim any kind of power”.

The pain, torture and trauma of the Syrian people cannot be forgotten and is something that the country needs to come to terms with, because “at the heart of it all, these are human beings”.

Listen to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat on Sabahul Muslim.