Rabia Mayet | rabiamayet@radioislam.co.za

22 April 2026

3-minute read

Trump’s announcement of an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, while continuing the blockade at the behest of Pakistan, has left the conflict in the Middle East unresolved.

In an interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat on Radio Islam International, Dr Jessica Kanoa, academic director at the Public Policy Institute of UNSW Sydney, unpacked her article ‘A Frozen Conflict,’ on the issue. She says that the word frozen does not mean that nothing happens, rather it denotes a “cessation of hostilities” with a stop in full-scale military action under the ceasefire. In this case, there are still ongoing flare-ups of violence, as well as political and economic actions between the two sides, albeit “below the threshold of full-scale war.”

Trump’s extension of the ceasefire means that he may now want an actual stop in military action, but on the other hand, there seems to be no agreement on or addressing of the complex and sometimes intractable issues driving the conflict. Furthermore, there has been no concrete resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, a focus that greatly contributed to escalating tensions between the parties, and global fuel and living cost increases are causing widespread pressure.

The different players in the conflict are facing varying longer, underlying issues. Between Iran and Israel, part of this rests heavily on whether or not there will be a resolution in the conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis. A key point between the US and the Iranian regime is the nuclear issue and whether Iran would be willing to give up possession of its current enriched uranium, non-enriched uranium in the future, and not acquire nuclear weapons. However, Iran may be considering acquiring nuclear weapons as a deterrent to any future attacks from the US. Added to this are the issues of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of sanctions on Iran.

So, who is the biggest loser in this conflict?  Possibly the Gulf countries who are “feeling a lot of antagonism towards Iran,” says Dr Jessica, and their past “fractious relations” will lead to difficult future dealings. And to some extent, the Iranian people, who have not experienced regime change but have had to suffer bombings from the US and Israel. Although they have been able to maintain their security and their economies, the Gulf states are “in the most precarious position”.

With the US achieving military goals by degrading the military capability of the Iranians, it has not achieved its more strategic goals of regime collapse. Despite this, the US is easily able to withdraw, and while that may not make them “a clear winner,” they are far from the biggest loser, alongside Israel, who have achieved some of their objectives by degrading Iran militarily. The Iranian regime, despite losing a lot of their high-level leadership, is coming out of this conflict “a bit of a winner” as they have managed to survive and maintain some control.

Listen to the full interview with Ml Sulaimaan Ravat and Dr Jessica Kanoa here.