15 May 2026 | 11:45 CAT
3-minute read

Strait of Hormuz: a competition of endurance

The 2026 conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has devolved into a high-stakes war of attrition between the United States and Iran, marked by a collapsed, fragile ceasefire and persistent threats to global energy security.

According to analysts, the fight has become a competition of endurance, reduced US credibility and is threatening to turn Iran into a “forever war”.

During this week’s Middle East Report, analyst James Dorsey discussed the way the inability to reopen the Strait has undermined the US vow to ensure the “free flow of energy”.

“Opening the Strait of Hormuz is key to his ability to credibly declare victory. His options are not good. They essentially mean either a prolonged battle of blockades…or military action,” Dorsey said.

Iran’s shutdown of the waterway and the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports have transformed the world’s most critical oil chokepoint into a sustained economic siege.

The discussion outlines two potential military scenarios. The first involves Trump reverting to targeted airstrikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, including power plants and oil facilities—an approach that recent events over the last two months suggest would likely fail.

The second would involve US forces seizing control of the Strait through a ground operation to occupy key sections of the Iranian coastline along it — a daunting task, especially given last week’s CIA report indicating that 30 of the 33 Iranian missile launch sites along the Strait remain operational.

China calls for free passage of ships

Despite China’s calls for the restoration of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the war, and assurances that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, Beijing remains unwilling to assist Washington in negotiating with Tehran.

“There’s no indication with Trump in Beijing at this moment that China will pressure Iran, nor is there an indication that if it even tried, it would be successful,” Dorsey said.

Iran stated this week that 30 Chinese-flagged vessels had passed through the Gulf while Trump was in Beijing, making Chinese pressure on Iran even less likely. This is unsurprising, given that China purchases roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports at steep discounts.

Gulf reliance on US defence endures

Meanwhile, Gulf states are expected to adopt a more consultative and conditional approach in their relations with the United States, though Washington is likely to retain its fundamental supremacy in defence and technology cooperation.

Dorsey noted that when it comes to a credible defence shield, the Gulf states have nowhere else to turn but the United States. No other power — particularly not China — is willing or able to assume the responsibility and enormous cost of providing such protection.

This reality was underscored this week by UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaiba, who reaffirmed the UAE’s commitment to America as its primary technology partner. The Gulf states’ massive investments in artificial intelligence, data centres, and US technology — totalling billions of dollars — further demonstrate that they recognise they have few viable alternatives.

Saudi Arabia has floated the idea of a regional non-aggression pact that would include Iran, aimed at lowering tensions and preventing direct attacks between Gulf states and Tehran. However, such a pact appears highly unlikely, as it would almost certainly need to encompass Israel — a step Jerusalem is extremely unlikely to accept.

Adding to the complexity, the UAE has emerged as something of an outlier: despite the ongoing war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a secret visit to the UAE, highlighting the deep divisions within the Gulf over how to move forward.

Rising arrests and expulsions of Shiites across Gulf states

For the past several years, Gulf states with Sunni majorities had pursued greater inclusion of Shiite Muslims, a process that gained momentum after Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations in 2023 under Chinese mediation. Those ties had been severed in 2016 following Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

In recent weeks, however, authorities have carried out arrests of Shiite Muslims in Kuwait and the UAE, expelled Pakistani Shiites from the UAE, stripped Bahraini nationals of their citizenship on grounds of collusion with Iran or involvement in inciting or planning violence, and carried out reported deportations of Shiites from Qatar. Dorsey noted that these actions have coincided with rising nationalist rhetoric amid the conflict.

Listen to the Middle East Report with James Dorsey on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.