13 May 2026 | 13:50 CAT
4-minute read

US President Donald Trump is travelling to Beijing for a high-stakes, two-day state visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping from 13 to 15 May 2026. The visit marks the first by a sitting US president to China in nearly a decade. It is being closely watched as a potential turning point in US–China relations and the wider global power balance.

The two leaders are expected to discuss a range of contentious issues, including efforts to end the war on Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, stabilising trade tariffs, managing competition in advanced artificial intelligence, and US arms sales to Taiwan.

During this week’s Media Lens, analyst Hafidh Ibrahim said the meeting reflects an attempt to manage long-standing tensions between the world’s two largest economies, which have been locked in a prolonged trade dispute.

“The current visit is trying to smooth over these tensions, to try and find a way to relate,” Hafidh Deen said, adding that any outcome is likely to be limited and fail to address the deeper structural causes of friction between Washington and Beijing.

He noted that the consequences of the summit will extend far beyond the two countries due to global trade linkages, technology supply chains, and wider energy market instability. For countries such as South Africa, the effects could be significant, influencing the currency, inflation, fuel prices, and broader trade relationships.

“The US and China are our top two trading partners. Any sanctions, secondary sanctions, threats of sanctions, especially from the US, impacts our relationships and economic growth,” Hafidh Ibrahim explained.

Analysts say that despite deep disagreements, both powers will need to find ways to co-exist, even under leaders with contrasting political styles and approaches to foreign policy.

A major point of tension remains US arms sales to Taiwan. Beijing is expected to closely monitor Washington’s position on the issue as it assesses long-term US commitments to regional security.

The immediate source of friction is a $11,2 billion US arms package recently approved for Taiwan, including anti-ship missiles, long-range radar systems, and air-defence upgrades. China has condemned the deal as a violation of prior diplomatic understandings and a step toward legitimising Taiwanese independence.

Beijing maintains that Taiwan is part of China under its long-standing “One China” policy, which underpins its foreign relations stance. It strongly opposes any foreign military support for Taiwan or moves toward formal independence.

“The Chinese have always been opposed to arming Taiwan and any moves towards Taiwanese independence,” Hafidh Ibrahim said, adding that Beijing views Taiwan as central to US efforts to contain China’s influence in the Pacific through the “first island chain,” which includes Japan and South Korea.

While the issue is expected to be raised during the summit, Ibrahim said significant policy changes are unlikely. He argued that China sees US foreign policy under Trump as transactional and subject to rapid reversal.

“It’s about managing this,” he said, suggesting Beijing will pursue a long-term strategy aimed at strengthening its leverage over Taiwan politically, economically, and militarily.

Beyond Taiwan, Ibrahim cautioned against viewing the summit purely as a geopolitical contest between two rival superpowers. He said media narratives often overlook deeper structural dynamics shaping the relationship.

“From a Trump perspective, it is very superficial theatre,” he said, noting that while limited agreements on tariffs or negotiations may emerge, China is likely to approach the talks more cautiously and strategically.

According to Ibrahim, Beijing is seeking to project itself as a stable and predictable global actor willing to engage in negotiations, particularly in contrast to what it views as US policy inconsistency.

“China sees this meeting as a way of actually showing that they’re advocating negotiations,” he said, adding that this forms part of its broader effort to expand global influence through a more rules-based image.

The summit has also revived debate about whether the world is shifting toward a bipolar system dominated by Washington and Beijing. Ibrahim said this could resemble Cold War dynamics, where global competition plays out indirectly through alliances and regional conflicts.

For smaller states such as South Africa, this shift presents both risks and opportunities. Countries able to balance relations between the two powers could gain economic and strategic advantages, similar to South Korea and Japan in earlier geopolitical eras.

The presence of major business figures, including Elon Musk and Tim Cook, further highlights the role of technology and trade in shaping US–China relations. Ibrahim said access to China’s vast consumer market, alongside competition in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, remains central to negotiations.

“The Chinese market is a billion people,” he said, adding that AI and chip development are key strategic battlegrounds between the two economies.

Despite ongoing tensions, both Washington and Beijing appear committed to avoiding direct confrontation while protecting their respective interests. The outcome of the summit is likely to influence global trade, security, and geopolitical alignments well beyond the two-day meeting.

Listen to the Media Lens with Haafidh Ibrahim on Sabaahul Muslim presented by Muallimah Annisa Essack.