Neelam Rahim | neelam@radioislam.co.za
3-minute read

📷 Global tensions, fuel prices and energy reforms continue to shape South Africa’s economic outlook.

For this week’s ASRI Report, attention turned to whether South Africa’s long-standing structural challenges, particularly electricity and logistics are finally easing, and what that could mean for the year ahead amid escalating global instability.

Political Economist Rashad Amra noted that load shedding, once a defining feature of daily life, appears to have stabilised in a way few South Africans would have imagined even two years ago.

“Most of us wouldn’t be able to pinpoint the exact month load shedding last happened. It certainly wasn’t last week, and probably not even in the last six months,” Amra said.

He attributed this relative stability to a combination of leadership changes and structural interventions, including the appointment of a new Minister of Energy, a reconstituted Eskom board, and the growing contribution of independent power producers, particularly in renewable energy.

“For whatever reason, despite repeated efforts over many years, this time it seems to have yielded some results,” he said, describing the stabilisation of electricity supply as an “incredible achievement” in a crisis that began as far back as 2008.

Beyond energy, Amra highlighted early signs of improvement in South Africa’s logistics sector. Expansion at the Durban port, reduced backlogs at key terminals, and Transnet’s move to involve private operators on national rail lines were cited as important steps forward.

“Instead of putting everything on the N3, you can move goods by rail between Durban and Gauteng,” he said, adding that while reforms are far from complete, they make business “a bit easier and a bit cheaper”.

These developments, Amra argued, could help improve investor confidence and ultimately benefit ordinary South Africans through improved service delivery and job creation.

However, optimism remains cautious. Amra warned that global geopolitics continues to cast a long shadow over any local progress. From tensions involving Iran and Venezuela to the ongoing devastation in Gaza, the West Bank and Sudan, international instability remains a major risk.

“Geopolitics will drive a lot,” he said. “Things can be doing well, but uncertainty always throws some shade.”

Domestically, upcoming local government elections in 2026 also pose potential risks, with Amra pointing to increasingly polarised and extreme political rhetoric at municipal level.

“While there’s been political stability nationally, local politics will play a big role in determining economic outcomes,” he said.

Despite these uncertainties, Amra expressed guarded hope for the year ahead.

“It looks like it may be better than last year and the year before, inshallah,” he said, stressing that sustained reform and global restraint would be key to turning early gains into lasting recovery.

As South Africa navigates fragile improvements at home and deepening instability abroad, the coming year will test whether economic resilience can withstand a turbulent global landscape.

Listen to the full ASRI Report on Sabahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat and Rashad Amra.