10 July 2026 | 10:20 CAT
4-minute read

Trump leaves narrow path for US-Iran diplomacy

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump effectively tore up the US-Iran ceasefire and Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by declaring the interim accord “over” and revoking Iranian oil-selling licenses. However, he left a diplomatic backdoor open by explicitly stating he would “let wonderful negotiators keep talking” if they want to.

During this week’s Middle East Report on Radio Islam International, Middle East analyst James Dorsey explained that moments after declaring the MoU dead, Trump stated his diplomatic team (including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff) could continue negotiations if they wanted to.

“He said he would leave it up to his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to pursue further discussions with the Iranians if they thought that was useful,” Dorsey said.

Parallels between Trump’s response and the new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reveal shared political playbooks: both project absolute defiance under pressure, use hostile public rhetoric to appease domestic hardliners, express deep mistrust of foreign negotiating partners, and rely on inner-circle delegation.

Despite the apparent collapse of the agreement, Dorsey argued that neither Washington nor Tehran has completely abandoned diplomacy.

“The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is hanging by a thread. It hasn’t quite collapsed yet. That doesn’t mean that we’re not back to square one, in the sense that this is becoming a question of who blinks first again,” he said.

The memorandum, signed only weeks ago after months of indirect negotiations, was deliberately drafted in broad language to secure agreement between both sides. Analysts note that many of its key provisions were left open to interpretation, allowing Washington and Tehran to present the deal differently to their domestic audiences while postponing more contentious issues for future negotiations.

According to Dorsey, that ambiguity has now become one of the agreement’s greatest weaknesses.

“If you look at the memorandum, it really is a text that is multi-interpretable, in which the substantive issues are outlined, but they’re not clearly defined, nor is the solution to them clearly defined,” he explained.

As a result, the United States and Iran now interpret the same document in fundamentally different ways, making renewed negotiations increasingly difficult and raising the risk of further military escalation.

While both sides appear eager to avoid another full-scale war, Dorsey warned that economic measures could prove more dangerous than recent military exchanges. Trump’s decision to re-impose sanctions on Iranian oil exports strikes at one of Tehran’s most important sources of revenue and places additional strain on an economy already weakened by years of sanctions.

“The US re-imposition of oil sanctions, more than the most recent tit-for-tat strikes, potentially puts the warring sides on a path to renewed conflict,” Dorsey cautioned.

He added that once sanctions are restored, domestic political pressures in Washington often make them far more difficult to remove, even if diplomatic progress is achieved.

Another flashpoint remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Dorsey warned that any attempt by the US to restore a naval blockade of Iranian ports could provoke Tehran into disrupting shipping through the strategic waterway, significantly increasing the risk of a wider regional conflict and threatening global energy markets.

Military activity has already intensified despite the ceasefire remaining technically in place. Dorsey noted that Iran has launched attacks on Qatar and Jordan for the first time in several months, while Bahrain and Kuwait have also come under renewed pressure. Meanwhile, the United States has carried out its largest wave of strikes against Iranian targets since the ceasefire was announced in April.

Among the most significant targets was a railway in northeastern Iran linking Tehran with Mashhad, one of the country’s most important religious and commercial centres. The route forms part of Iran’s efforts to develop alternative export corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz should maritime routes become inaccessible.

Beyond Iran, Dorsey said growing instability in Yemen threatens to unravel an informal four-year ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi movement.

Recent clashes in Hodeidah governorate, interceptions of weapons shipments destined for the Houthis, and the resumption of direct flights from Tehran to Houthi-controlled Sana’a for the first time in more than a decade all point to increasing involvement by both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

According to Dorsey, the failure of the US-Iran memorandum to address Tehran’s support for regional allies has created competing perceptions of opportunity. Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognised government believe the Houthis have been weakened by public dissatisfaction, tighter financial constraints and reduced Iranian support. Iran, meanwhile, may see renewed Houthi pressure on international shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait as an effective means of countering growing pressure in the Gulf.

Dorsey also reflected on Iran’s carefully choreographed funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, describing them as both a national memorial and a political demonstration.

He said the six days of ceremonies were intended not only to honour Khamenei’s decades-long leadership but also to project domestic unity and reinforce Iran’s position as a leader within the global Shia community.

However, Dorsey believes the public display of unity masks deeper unresolved tensions.

“The question is not if, but when those grievances will resurface,” he said, referring to the economic hardship, political dissatisfaction and social unrest that fuelled widespread anti-government protests before the recent conflict.

Although the war temporarily united many Iranians behind the state, Dorsey argued that the underlying pressures remain unresolved and may ultimately prove more challenging for Iran’s leadership than the current external confrontation.

Listen to the Middle East Report with James Dorsey on Sabaahul Muslim, presented by Moulana Ibrahim Daya.