Sameera Casmod | sameerac@radioislam.co.za
08 March 2024 | 12:49 p.m. CAT
2 minute read

The complexity of the ‘Muslim vote’ is a focal point ahead of the 2024 South African general election, particularly in the context of Israel’s war on Gaza. Voters are facing the task of balancing local concerns with global issues.

Dr Imraan Buccus, senior research associate at the Auwal Socioeconomic Research Institute (ASRI), emphasises the diverse interests within the Muslim community, debunking the notion of a monolithic Muslim vote.

“Muslims don’t vote as a group. So the Muslims in South Africa are not one monolithic group. There are multiple Muslim votes… Muslims, like any other group, vote according to their material interests,” Dr Buccus says.

Factors such as economic status and local governance play a significant role in shaping voting preferences.

Dr Buccus opines that Israel’s attack on Gaza will influence voters’ decisions in varying degrees.

For instance, communities on the Cape Flats may still lean towards supporting the Democratic Alliance (DA) because the party has, in the past, fulfilled the material interests of people living there, and also due to perceptions of order associated with the DA.

In other areas, however, Israel’s attack on Gaza might move the vote away from the DA to the African National Congress (ANC) or other parties, Dr Buccus says.

Regarding the ANC, Dr Buccus notes a shift in sentiment among Muslims, with the party being seen as a potential political home again.

“The conversation has perhaps (again, my own understanding) has shfted from ANC failures…to a growing sense that, in some important way, the ANC retains the progressive current. It’s reimagined its moral integrity, and it has given global leadership in a time when the West has turned the other way… That has gone a long, long way in rescuing the moral integrity of the ANC,” Dr Buccus says.

Dr Buccus cautions against uncritical political support, acknowledging both positive and negative figures within the ANC.

When asked about the strategic implications of consolidating or splitting the Muslim vote, Dr Buccus says that while splitting the vote may align with interests at different levels of government, it could also pose challenges in terms of governance and coordination.

“So you could vote, for example, the DA, or Rise Mzansi or any other party at the provincial level. And the argument is that the party has very little impact on foreign policy posture. And then vote for the ANC at the national level because foreign policy defends intelligence or national competencies,” Dr Buccus says.

Ultimately, Dr Buccus notes, there are many factors that influence voter preferences, and each Muslim community will make individualised choices in the upcoming elections.

Listen to the ASRI Report on Sabaahul Muslim with Moulana Sulaimaan Ravat.